Towards a better understanding of polar climate variability

更好地了解极地气候变化

• 批准号: RGPIN-2021-03888
• 负责人: Orsi, Anais
• 金额: $ 4.81万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=751305
• 关键词: Towards; better; understanding; polar; climate

Polar regions are a key component of the Earth's climate system, and are changing dramatically under anthropogenic climate change. The single greatest challenge for polar climate science is that there are not enough data to describe the climatology and trends. As a result, even though Greenland and Antarctica are perhaps the most sensitive regions on Earth to climate change, it is still very difficult to precisely answer questions like "How much have they been warming over the past 50 years?", and even more difficult to put recent observations in the context of natural climate variability. The overarching goal of this research program is to better understand polar climate changes in the past, present and future, with an emphasis on temperature, and the hydrological cycle (precipitation, atmospheric humidity). To this aim, we will provide records in key locations using paleoclimate data, investigate processes with in-situ measurements and controlled laboratory experiments, bring many datasets together to get the bigger picture, and provide benchmarks to evaluate climate models in polar regions. In this 5-year program, we will focus on 3 objectives: -Quantify the interannual variability of Antarctic surface winds, its response to climate change, and its impact on the water cycle, using a polar oriented regional climate model, and new observations on the steep slopes of the Antarctic plateau. -Use databases of Antarctic paleoclimate records to better describe Antarctic climate variability at decadal and longer timescales during the late Holocene by reconstructing modes of variability (such as the Southern Annular Mode), rather than climate variables like temperature or snow accumulation. -Investigate the mechanisms driving modern changes in Arctic humidity, using new measurements of water vapour isotopic composition in the Western Canadian Arctic, and on the Müller ice cap (80°N,91°W). This humidity increase is a key component in the feedback mechanisms responsible for Arctic amplification. In the short term, this program will produce key new datasets that will improve our fundamental understanding on the response of polar regions to climate change. We will produce readily useable benchmarks to evaluate climate models, which will lead in the medium term to an improvement of the quality of climate projections in polar regions, and elsewhere. This research will benefit Canada by providing new observations and understanding of a large, under-studied, region in the Western Canadian Arctic. More generally, the improvement of our knowledge of polar climate change will improve the accuracy of future climate projections, and adaptation plans that depend on them. This program will train HQP with a broad range of skills in isotope geochemistry, data analysis and climate modelling. The emphasis of early-career HQP is intended to improve diversity in Earth Science by attracting future research scientists early in their academic careers.

极地地区是地球气候系统的关键组成部分，在人为气候变化的影响下正在发生巨大变化。极地气候科学面临的最大挑战是没有足够的数据来描述气候学和趋势。因此，尽管格陵兰岛和南极洲可能是地球上对气候变化最敏感的地区，但仍然很难准确地回答像“过去50年来它们变暖了多少？”这样的问题，更难将最近的观察放在自然气候变化的背景下。该研究计划的总体目标是更好地了解过去、现在和未来的极地气候变化，重点是温度和水循环(降水、大气湿度)。为此，我们将利用古气候数据提供关键地点的记录，通过现场测量和受控实验室实验调查过程，将许多数据集汇集在一起以了解更大的图景，并为评估极地地区的气候模型提供基准。在这个为期5年的计划中，我们将重点关注3个目标：-利用极地导向的区域气候模式和对南极高原陡峭斜坡的新观测，量化南极地面风的年际变化、其对气候变化的响应及其对水循环的影响。-利用南极古气候记录数据库，通过重建可变性模式(如南环状模式)，而不是重建温度或积雪等气候变量，更好地描述全新世晚期十年和更长时间尺度上的南极气候可变性。-利用对加拿大西部北极和穆勒冰盖(80°N，91°W)水蒸气同位素组成的新测量，研究推动北极湿度现代变化的机制。这种湿度增加是负责北极放大的反馈机制中的一个关键组成部分。短期内，该计划将产生关键的新数据集，这些数据集将提高我们对极地地区对气候变化反应的基本理解。我们将制定易于使用的基准来评估气候模型，这将在中期内提高极地和其他地区气候预测的质量。这项研究将为加拿大西部北极一大片研究不足的地区提供新的观察和理解，从而使加拿大受益。更广泛地说，我们对极地气候变化的了解的改善将提高未来气候预测的准确性，以及依赖这些预测的适应计划。该计划将培训HQP在同位素地球化学、数据分析和气候建模方面拥有广泛的技能。早期职业HQP的重点是通过吸引处于学术生涯早期的未来研究科学家来提高地球科学的多样性。