Towards a better understanding of polar climate variability

更好地了解极地气候变化

• 批准号: RGPIN-2021-03888
• 负责人: Orsi, Anais
• 金额: $ 4.81万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=751305
• 关键词: Towards; better; understanding; polar; climate

Polar regions are a key component of the Earth's climate system, and are changing dramatically under anthropogenic climate change. The single greatest challenge for polar climate science is that there are not enough data to describe the climatology and trends. As a result, even though Greenland and Antarctica are perhaps the most sensitive regions on Earth to climate change, it is still very difficult to precisely answer questions like "How much have they been warming over the past 50 years?", and even more difficult to put recent observations in the context of natural climate variability. The overarching goal of this research program is to better understand polar climate changes in the past, present and future, with an emphasis on temperature, and the hydrological cycle (precipitation, atmospheric humidity). To this aim, we will provide records in key locations using paleoclimate data, investigate processes with in-situ measurements and controlled laboratory experiments, bring many datasets together to get the bigger picture, and provide benchmarks to evaluate climate models in polar regions. In this 5-year program, we will focus on 3 objectives: -Quantify the interannual variability of Antarctic surface winds, its response to climate change, and its impact on the water cycle, using a polar oriented regional climate model, and new observations on the steep slopes of the Antarctic plateau. -Use databases of Antarctic paleoclimate records to better describe Antarctic climate variability at decadal and longer timescales during the late Holocene by reconstructing modes of variability (such as the Southern Annular Mode), rather than climate variables like temperature or snow accumulation. -Investigate the mechanisms driving modern changes in Arctic humidity, using new measurements of water vapour isotopic composition in the Western Canadian Arctic, and on the Müller ice cap (80°N,91°W). This humidity increase is a key component in the feedback mechanisms responsible for Arctic amplification. In the short term, this program will produce key new datasets that will improve our fundamental understanding on the response of polar regions to climate change. We will produce readily useable benchmarks to evaluate climate models, which will lead in the medium term to an improvement of the quality of climate projections in polar regions, and elsewhere. This research will benefit Canada by providing new observations and understanding of a large, under-studied, region in the Western Canadian Arctic. More generally, the improvement of our knowledge of polar climate change will improve the accuracy of future climate projections, and adaptation plans that depend on them. This program will train HQP with a broad range of skills in isotope geochemistry, data analysis and climate modelling. The emphasis of early-career HQP is intended to improve diversity in Earth Science by attracting future research scientists early in their academic careers.

极地地区是地球气候系统的重要组成部分，在人为气候变化的影响下正在发生巨大的变化。极地气候科学面临的最大挑战是没有足够的数据来描述气候和趋势。因此，尽管格陵兰岛和南极洲可能是地球上对气候变化最敏感的地区，但要准确回答“过去50年变暖了多少？”等问题仍然非常困难，更难以将最近的观测结果置于自然气候变率的背景下。 该研究计划的总体目标是更好地了解过去、现在和未来的极地气候变化，重点是温度和水文循环（降水、大气湿度）。为此，我们将使用古气候数据提供关键地点的记录，通过现场测量和受控实验室实验研究过程，将许多数据集整合在一起以获得更大的图景，并为评估极地地区的气候模型提供基准。在这个为期五年的计划中，我们将重点关注三个目标： - 使用面向极地的区域气候模型以及对南极高原陡坡的新观测，量化南极表面风的年际变化、其对气候变化的响应及其对水循环的影响。 -使用南极古气候记录数据库，通过重建变率模式（例如南环模），而不是温度或积雪等气候变量，更好地描述全新世晚期十年和更长时间尺度的南极气候变率。 -利用加拿大西部北极和穆勒冰盖（北纬 80°，西经 91°）水蒸气同位素组成的新测量结果，研究驱动北极湿度现代变化的机制。这种湿度增加是负责北极放大的反馈机制的关键组成部分。在短期内，该计划将产生关键的新数据集，这将提高我们对极地地区对气候变化响应的基本了解。我们将制定易于使用的基准来评估气候模型，这将在中期提高极地地区和其他地方的气候预测质量。 这项研究将为加拿大带来对加拿大西部北极地区一大片尚未充分研究的地区的新观察和了解。更一般地说，我们对极地气候变化的了解的提高将提高未来气候预测以及依赖于它们的适应计划的准确性。 该计划将培训 HQP 使其具备同位素地球化学、数据分析和气候建模方面的广泛技能。早期职业 HQP 的重点是通过在学术生涯早期吸引未来的研究科学家来提高地球科学的多样性。