Uncertainty Quantification for Probabilistic Stability Analysis and Uncertainty-Aware Control of Electric Power Systems

电力系统概率稳定性分析和不确定性感知控制的不确定性量化

• 批准号: RGPIN-2022-03236
• 负责人: Wang, Xiaozhe
• 金额: $ 3.35万
• 依托单位: McGill University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=752305
• 关键词: Uncertainty; Quantification; Probabilistic; Stability; Analysis

Power system instabilities are unacceptable to society as they are not only extremely costly but also profoundly disrupt people's daily lives and the delivery of essential services (e.g., food, health care). The penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources, like wind and solar, introduces high uncertainty to power grids, which has been linked with severe power blackouts affecting millions of people and costing billions of dollars. Many real-life events (e.g., UK's power blackout in Aug. 2019 due to the failure of Hornsea offshore wind farm) demonstrate that it is essential and imperative to investigate systematically the impacts of uncertainty on power system stability and design effective measures to mitigate the adverse impacts of uncertainty. Leveraging on advanced metamodeling method, statistical learning and variance-based global sensitivity analysis, the proposed research aims to develop novel probabilistic stability assessment methods to quantify the impacts of uncertainty on power system transient and voltage stability, and design uncertainty-aware control measures to mitigate the negative impacts of uncertainty on the transient and voltage stability. Particularly, there are three short-term objectives: (1) design a probabilistic stability assessment method to quantify the impacts of uncertainty on power system transient stability accurately and efficiently; (2) design a probabilistic stability assessment method to quantify the impacts of uncertainty on power system voltage stability accurately and efficiently; (3) design uncertainty-aware control measures to mitigate the impacts of uncertainty on power system transient stability and voltage stability, respectively. To fulfill the three objectives, 2 PhD students and 2 Master's students will be trained to complete six tasks. The long-term goal of the proposed research is to develop a probabilistic paradigm, in which analytical methods and computational tools for the assessments of various types of stability (e.g., frequency stability, small-signal stability, converter-driven stability besides transient and voltage stability) are developed, and effective control measures for the mitigation of the negative impacts of uncertainty on various stability properties are designed. Canada has set a goal of increasing the share of zero-emitting sources from 80% to 90% by 2030 and to nearly 100% by 2050, by cleaning the supply, electrifying the transport, commercializing energy storage systems, etc. The outcomes of the proposed research will contribute to advancing Canada's energy transition by promoting the seamless integration of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles, managing uncertainty in the power industry, guiding the deployment of energy storage systems to deliver clean, reliable and affordable electricity to all Canadians, assisting Canada in moving towards nearly 100% renewable-based electricity by 2050.

电力系统的不稳定性对社会是无法接受的，因为它们不仅非常昂贵，而且会严重破坏人们的日常生活和提供基本服务的服务（例如，食品，医疗保健）。风和太阳能等间歇性可再生能源的渗透引入了电网的高度不确定性，这与影响数百万人和数十亿美元的严重电力停电有关。许多现实生活中的事件（例如，由于霍恩西（Hornsea）海上风电场的失败，英国在2019年8月的电力停电）表明，必须系统地调查不确定性对电力系统稳定性和设计有效措施的影响以减轻不确定性的不利影响是必不可少的。拟议的研究旨在开发新型的概率稳定性评估方法，以量化不确定性对电源系统瞬态和电压稳定性的影响，并设计不确定性意识到的控制措施，以减轻对瞬态和发电量的负面影响。特别是有三个短期目标：（1）设计一种概率稳定性评估方法，以准确有效地量化不确定性对电源系统瞬态稳定性的影响； （2）设计一种概率稳定性评估方法，以准确有效地量化不确定性对电力系统电压稳定性的影响； （3）设计不确定性感知控制措施，以减轻不确定性对电力系统瞬态稳定性和电压稳定性的影响。为了实现这三个目标，将对2名博士生和2名硕士学生进行培训，以完成六项任务。拟议的研究的长期目标是开发概率范式，其中用于评估各种类型稳定性的分析方法和计算工具（例如，频率稳定性，小信号稳定性，转换器驱动的稳定性除了瞬态和伏电稳定性外），并为各种不可测能的有效影响而产生了对负面影响的有效控制测量。加拿大设定了一个目标，即通过清洁供应，使运输，商业化的能源存储系统等使零发射源的份额从80％增加到到2030年，到2050年的近100％，到近100％到2050年。拟议的研究的结果将有助于推进加拿大能源的能源，从而通过促进能源的无缝促进能源的启动，从而促进不可能的能源启动，而无需启动不确定的电动机，而不必要的电动机会导致电动机的启动，而不是启动的电动机。为了向所有加拿大人提供干净，可靠和负担得起的电力，以帮助加拿大到2050年迈向近100％的基于可再生能源的电力。