Risk/Performance Trade-offs for Unmanned Aircraft Operations

无人机系统（UAS）目前仅限于在地面外部飞行员的独立视觉范围内运行，这已被确定为UAS行业增长的主要障碍。 无法感知和避免（SAA）与其他空中交通的碰撞是阻碍超视距（BVLOS）UAS操作的技术差距。 目的是开发一种新的方法，能够量化BVLOS碰撞风险，通过统计计算近空中碰撞（NMAC）每飞行小时的数量。这是一种范式转变，改变了目前在风险矩阵中使用“低”、“中”、“高”和“极端”等不精确形容词对所感知碰撞风险进行定性评估的做法。 另一个新奇是，它能够从给定的可接受NMAC风险水平（例如，在一定范围、仰角和方位角检测和跟踪入侵飞机所需的概率）反算性能要求，其结果将改变监管机构、制造商、最终用户和学术界的游戏规则。 可量化的性能标准将使监管机构，如加拿大交通部，能够公布无人机系统的标准，并使其检查员能够评价空间应用航空设备的性能。制造商将有必要的标准来投资他们的产品。 最终用户将有一个选择SAA设备的工具。学术界将有一个可衡量的尺度来比较他们的结果。 该计划建立在我在控制，传感器，通信，飞行动力学和人为因素方面的既定研究的创造性组合之上。作为一名控制专家，我将把混合控制系统的知识推进到一个新的应用中：UAS风险评估。 该计划将培养1名硕士和4名博士生，他们将通过3个计划的行业和监管机构参与周期与早期采用者，监管机构和制造商互动，以确保他们的研究与工业需求相关。 加拿大交通部通过提供加拿大高北极地区国家航空监视计划（NASP）的交通统计数据来支持拟议的研究。 NASP数据将用于评估西北通道上空无人机系统空中监视的风险。目前，只有一架DASH 7飞机在AB的埃德蒙顿运营，以覆盖NASP下的整个北极地区。 在加拿大北部增加无人机系统的能力是维护我们北极主权的必要推动力。从长远来看，该技术可以转向反无人机系统措施：防止恶意无人机入侵，例如将无人机飞行到拥挤的机场。 反无人机系统的市场规模可能超过已确定的1270亿美元的BVLOS市场，并且新市场将不会有阻碍其增长的监管障碍。

Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are currently restricted to operate only within the unaided visual range of the external pilot on the ground, and this has been identified as a major barrier to the growth of the UAS industry. The inability to sense and avoid (SAA) collisions with other air traffic is a technology gap impeding beyond visual line-of-sight (BVLOS) UAS operations. The aim is to develop a novel method capable of quantifying BVLOS collision risk via computing statistically the number of near-midair-collisions (NMAC) per flight hour. This is a paradigm shift from the current practice of using imprecise adjectives: “low”, “medium”, “high” and “extreme” in a risk matrix for a qualitative assessment of perceived collision risk. Another novelty is that it enables the back-calculation of performance requirements from a given level of acceptable NMAC risk, e.g. the required probability for the detection and tracking of an intruder aircraft at a certain range, elevation and azimuth.The outcome will be a game changer for a broad community of regulators, manufacturers, end users and academia. Quantifiable performance standards will enable the regulators, e.g. Transport Canada, to publish UAS standards, and for their inspectors to evaluate the performance of SAA equipment. Manufacturers will have the needed standards for investment in their products. The end users will have a tool for selecting SAA equipment. Academia will have a measurable yardstick to compare their results. The program builds upon creative combinations of my established research in controls, sensors, communications, flight dynamics and human factors. As a specialist in controls, I will advance knowledge in hybrid control systems to a new application: UAS risk assessment. The program will train 1 Master's and 4 PhD students, and they will interact with the early adopters, regulators and manufacturer through 3 planned cycles of industry and regulatory agencies engagement to ensure their research be relevant to industrial needs. Transport Canada is supporting the proposed research by providing traffic statistics from their National Aerial Surveillance Program (NASP) in the Canadian High Arctic. The NASP data will be used to estimate the risk for operating UAS aerial surveillance over the North-West Passage. At present, there is only one DASH 7 aircraft operating out of Edmonton, AB to cover the entire Arctic region under NASP. The addition of UAS capabilities to the Canadian North is a needed boost for safeguarding our Arctic sovereignty.In longer terms, the technology can pivot into counter-UAS measures: the prevention of malicious UAV intrusions, e.g. flying UAV's into a crowded airport. The counter-UAS market size could surpass the identified $127 billion BVLOS market and the new market will not have regulatory barriers that will inhibit its growth.