Collision assessment for UAV

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The inability to see (sense) and avoid (SAA) other air traffic has been recognized by Transport Canada, FAA and ICAO as a major impediment preventing the integration of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) into non-segregated airspace. An initial requirement was for UAVs to have equivalent level of safety (ELOS) similar to a human pilot being able to "see" and avoid traffic. But ELOS is now replaced by a more quantifiable measure: targeted level of safety (TLS), the acceptable mean number of near collisions per flight hour which could result in fatalities. My research thrust is aimed at a novel analysis tool to determine TLS, based on an industry-accepted statistical (encounter) model used to develop and validate TCAS. The approach is to determine TLS statistically by fast simulation over a large number of probable encounters. A novelty is that the analyzer is "technology agnostic'': it can evaluate early-stage SAA algorithms from the developers and standards from the regulators, without reference to and prior to the implementation of a particular technology or adaptation of a certain standard. An early outcome could be a scientific quantification of risk (TLS) for UAV patrol duties over sparsely populated areas and this could have an immediate impact on the Government of Canada's policy on Arctic sovereignty. In longer term, by collaborating with MIT Lincoln Lab, a contractor to FAA, we are positioned to contribute "Canadian content", at an early stage, in the drafting of an FAA SAA standard, which will likely be later adopted by ICAO and Transport Canada. Within the aerospace sector, SAA development is stifled by a circular dependence: regulators are looking to the industries for input, but many industries are waiting for an approved standard before investing in a technology. This research will foster sector growth by breaking this deadlock. It pioneers a methodology which enables industry to assess a technology before equipment is manufactured, and legislators to validate a standard before it becomes law. The resulting quantification of risk will also help the insurance industry to underwrite commercial UAV services: a necessity for growth of the unmanned aircraft sector.