Improved representation, impact assessment, and adaptive management of water resource systems under changing natural and anthropogenic conditions

在不断变化的自然和人为条件下改进水资源系统的代表性、影响评估和适应性管理

• 批准号: RGPIN-2020-05563
• 负责人: Hassanzadeh, Elmira
• 金额: $ 1.89万
• 依托单位: École Polytechnique de Montréal
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=754662
• 关键词: Improved; representation; impact; assessment; adaptive

Ecosystem services and human livelihoods are historically dependent on the natural hydrological cycle, which is now perturbed by human activities related to land and water management. Such interactions are to the extent that have formed new hybrids of Natural-Human Water Systems (NHWSs). Rapid socio-economic growth and changes in climatic and environmental conditions have increased stresses on NHWSs and introduced emerging water security challenges in Canada and globally. To face these challenges, management decisions should be informed by rigorous system modeling and assessment tools that can represent the dynamic interactions in NHWSs, reveal the behaviors of NHWSs under current and future conditions, and support the development of applicable adaptation strategies under both short- and long-term operational horizons. In this context, surface water allocation plays a key role in determining water quantity and quality and in linking various sectors of water demand to available sources of water supply; and therefore, water allocation lays down the short-term focus of this research program. Despite significant progresses made in recent years, still a generic framework for representing feedbacks in water allocation processes across a range of scales is not available. In addition, current vulnerability assessments are not equipped to portray a full insight into system trade-offs and to provide an unified understanding of the system vulnerability across various management dimensions. Finally, management decisions should receive strong community support in order to remain relevant and applicable. Current stakeholder engagements however are often limited to certain groups of stakeholders which obstruct a true understanding of the level of acceptance, and therefore, make it difficult to predict and secure community support of the proposed management plans. Having said that, even if inclusive groups of stakeholders are considered, accommodating inherent diversities in knowledge and expectations can create major challenges for decision-makers. Most importantly, there is a mismatch between quantitative knowledge of water allocation obtained from the results of modeling and impact assessment tools and qualitative knowledge of stakeholder manifested through narratives. The proposed research program recognizes these gaps and aims at developing improved tools for (i) representing water allocation, given feedback processes within and between components of water supply and demand; (ii) assessing future vulnerabilities in water allocation, given emerging behaviors and trade-offs under changing conditions; and (iii) managing water allocation through stakeholder inclusion, given the diversify in their knowledge, interests and worldviews. These objectives will be carried out in three important Canadian case studies and increase our ability to identify vulnerabilities and mitigate future risks through management plans that are supported by Canadian communities.

生态系统服务和人类生计在历史上依赖于自然水文循环，而现在则受到与土地和水管理有关的人类活动的干扰。这种相互作用在某种程度上形成了自然-人类水系统（NHWSs）的新混合体。社会经济的快速增长以及气候和环境条件的变化增加了对nhss的压力，并在加拿大和全球范围内引入了新的水安全挑战。为了应对这些挑战，管理决策应该通过严格的系统建模和评估工具来提供信息，这些工具可以代表NHWSs中的动态相互作用，揭示NHWSs在当前和未来条件下的行为，并支持在短期和长期运营范围内制定适用的适应策略。在这方面，地表水的分配在确定水的数量和质量以及将水需求的各个部门与现有的供水来源联系起来方面起着关键作用；因此，水资源分配是本研究项目的短期重点。尽管近年来取得了重大进展，但仍然没有一个通用的框架来表示跨一系列尺度的水分配过程中的反馈。此外，当前的脆弱性评估并不能完全洞察系统的权衡，也不能跨不同的管理维度提供对系统脆弱性的统一理解。最后，管理决策应该得到强有力的社区支持，以保持相关性和适用性。然而，当前的利益相关者参与通常仅限于某些利益相关者群体，这阻碍了对接受程度的真正理解，因此，很难预测和确保社区对拟议管理计划的支持。话虽如此，即使考虑到具有包容性的利益相关者群体，容纳知识和期望的内在多样性也会给决策者带来重大挑战。最重要的是，从建模和影响评估工具的结果中获得的水分配定量知识与通过叙事表现的利益相关者的定性知识之间存在不匹配。拟议的研究计划认识到这些差距，并旨在开发改进的工具，用于(i)根据供水和需求组成部分内部和之间的反馈过程，表示水的分配；（ii）考虑到在不断变化的条件下出现的行为和权衡，评估未来水资源分配的脆弱性；（三）考虑到利益相关者的知识、利益和世界观的多样性，通过包容利益相关者来管理水资源分配。这些目标将在三个重要的加拿大案例研究中实现，并通过加拿大社区支持的管理计划提高我们识别脆弱性和减轻未来风险的能力。