Improved representation, impact assessment, and adaptive management of water resource systems under changing natural and anthropogenic conditions

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Ecosystem services and human livelihoods are historically dependent on the natural hydrological cycle, which is now perturbed by human activities related to land and water management. Such interactions are to the extent that have formed new hybrids of Natural-Human Water Systems (NHWSs). Rapid socio-economic growth and changes in climatic and environmental conditions have increased stresses on NHWSs and introduced emerging water security challenges in Canada and globally. To face these challenges, management decisions should be informed by rigorous system modeling and assessment tools that can represent the dynamic interactions in NHWSs, reveal the behaviors of NHWSs under current and future conditions, and support the development of applicable adaptation strategies under both short- and long-term operational horizons. In this context, surface water allocation plays a key role in determining water quantity and quality and in linking various sectors of water demand to available sources of water supply; and therefore, water allocation lays down the short-term focus of this research program. Despite significant progresses made in recent years, still a generic framework for representing feedbacks in water allocation processes across a range of scales is not available. In addition, current vulnerability assessments are not equipped to portray a full insight into system trade-offs and to provide an unified understanding of the system vulnerability across various management dimensions. Finally, management decisions should receive strong community support in order to remain relevant and applicable. Current stakeholder engagements however are often limited to certain groups of stakeholders which obstruct a true understanding of the level of acceptance, and therefore, make it difficult to predict and secure community support of the proposed management plans. Having said that, even if inclusive groups of stakeholders are considered, accommodating inherent diversities in knowledge and expectations can create major challenges for decision-makers. Most importantly, there is a mismatch between quantitative knowledge of water allocation obtained from the results of modeling and impact assessment tools and qualitative knowledge of stakeholder manifested through narratives. The proposed research program recognizes these gaps and aims at developing improved tools for (i) representing water allocation, given feedback processes within and between components of water supply and demand; (ii) assessing future vulnerabilities in water allocation, given emerging behaviors and trade-offs under changing conditions; and (iii) managing water allocation through stakeholder inclusion, given the diversify in their knowledge, interests and worldviews. These objectives will be carried out in three important Canadian case studies and increase our ability to identify vulnerabilities and mitigate future risks through management plans that are supported by Canadian communities.