Theoretical Evolutionary Epidemiology

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Dr. Ailene MacPherson's research program addresses fundamental questions at the intersection of evolution, ecology, and epidemiology. The long-term goal is to use infectious diseases to explore species interactions. During the proposed CRC term, Dr. MacPherson will address two short-term objectives: 1) Develop methods for robustly estimating infectious disease dynamics from viral genomic data and 2) Analyze mathematical models and develop statistical inference methods to examine coevolution between hosts and infectious pathogens and to facilitate the design of effective genetic conservation strategies. The MacPherson research team will tackle these research objectives with a multifaceted approach. For Objective 1 they will develop and apply methods for analyzing viral genome sequences to inform disease dynamics. Specifically, the team will focus on the estimation of epidemiological parameters of particular importance in natural populations and for the design of innovative public health strategies, such as the development of transmissible vaccines. Objective 2 consists of four complementary approaches. First, the team will develop mathematical population genetic models to contrast local versus global patterns of coevolutionary adaptation. Then they will use the findings from Objective 1 to expand and synthesize theoretical perspectives on the effect of species interactions on biological diversity. In the final two approaches, Dr. MacPherson and her research team will transition from a mathematical to a statistical framework, using patterns of parasite local adaptation to identify genes involved in species interactions and to design genetic conservation strategies to help rescue species at risk of extinction from infectious disease. The outcomes of the proposed research will provide insights on existential scientific challenges faced by Canadians, from pandemic control to conservation.