Hybrid Data-driven Physics-based Modeling for Machine Fault Detection, Diagnosis, and Prediction

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Optimization of operation and maintenance activities would result in huge efficiency and productivity improvements across most industrial and commercial sectors in Canada. However, this requires the collection and appropriate use of meaningful parameters that correlate with system performance, degradation, and failure. Existing monitoring and maintenance decision support strategies for most mechanical and structural components and systems still require human supervision and decision making, especially when the system being considered is complex, mobile, remote and/or operates in non-steady state modes. Automation of significant parts of this activity is urgently needed. When large amounts of historical data are available, fault detection and diagnosis is possible. Data-driven methods demonstrate huge potential here because of their ability to sort data and recognize patterns representing faulty conditions. However, when only limited data is available that represents failure and/or degradation, these methods are severely constrained. New recursive data processing strategies (particularly appropriate for dynamic signals collected from rotating machinery) will be explored to improve the robustness of these methods when data is scarce. Additionally, prediction is more challenging when using data-based methods because they only represent past experience. New techniques will be developed that can integrate new data collected on-line allowing for rapidly updated models for improved prognostics. Physics-based models are excellent tools for prediction. These models may range dramatically in size and complexity, but modification to allow incorporation of component faults or system degradation is relatively easy. This facilitates system or component performance prediction. New models will be developed for gear teeth, planetary gear systems, and motor/generator systems. Combining information from multiple sources significantly improves the confidence level. Hybrid data-driven and physics-based protocols will allow the advantages of both to be enhanced and the disadvantages to be minimized. Such hybrid approaches will facilitate the optimization of system operation and maintenance. Preliminary work in this vane has already shown that dramatic improvements in accuracy are possible. Further development could result in huge improvements in system degradation detection, fault diagnosis and failure prediction. A breakthrough in hybrid strategy designs and their application across a wider array of industries and commercial applications is critically needed to service the rapidly expanding adoption of autonomous systems (cars, light rail trains, wind turbine generators).