Ecological change and the dynamics of zoonotic disease

我们知道不断变化的生态可以改变疾病系统的平衡，但为什么有些系统比其他系统更容易受到变化的影响？是什么影响了生态扰动对疾病动态的影响程度，以及由此产生的变化是不可逆转的可能性？尽管有大量证据表明生态变化与疾病系统的基本变化有关，但这一处于生态学和流行病学交叉领域的新兴研究领域缺乏坚实的理论基础，无法对生态变化对疾病动力学的影响进行量化、建模和跨系统比较。如果我们想要：1)确定特别容易受到生态变化影响的疾病系统，2)查明这些系统的哪些方面对疾病系统动态变化的贡献不成比例，以及3)制定战略和政策以减轻变化对人类和动物健康的负面影响（减少危害），或者相反，促进导致积极结果的变化（健康促进），填补这一知识差距至关重要。我建议开发和测试一个新的定量框架——生态变化和传染病（ECID）管道——这是一种评估疾病系统弹性和预测生态变化对疾病动态影响的灵活方法。弹性是指承受扰动或在冲击后迅速恢复的能力，这一概念在工程学和生态学中都有丰富的研究历史，但在流行病学中的应用有限。ECID管道弥补了这一概念上的差距，将所有三个领域的分析方法联系起来，以确定生态变化的具体脆弱性，并评估它们对疾病系统恢复力的综合影响。虽然ECID管道的许多组成部分在各自的领域已经存在了一段时间，但将学科联系起来，为严格评估生态变化对疾病系统动力学的影响创造必要的框架，这是一项重大的跨学科创新，可能会影响每个相关领域的未来研究方向。这一特定主题是快速兴起的“一种健康”（动物、人类和生态系统健康之间的接口）研究领域的核心，为测试涉及复杂疾病系统的“一种健康”问题提供了急需的定量框架。

We know that changing ecology can shift the balance of disease systems but why are some systems more vulnerable to change than others? What influences the magnitude of impact an ecological perturbation has on disease dynamics, and the probability that resulting changes are irreversible? Despite the accumulation of evidence linking ecological change to fundamental shifts in disease systems, this emerging research area at the interface between Ecology and Epidemiology lacks a solid theoretical foundation allowing the impacts of ecological change on disease dynamics to be quantified, modelled and compared across systems. Filling this knowledge gap is essential if we want to: 1) identify disease systems that are particularly vulnerable to ecological change, 2) pinpoint which aspects of these systems contribute disproportionately to changes in disease system dynamics and 3) develop strategies and policies to mitigate the negative effects of change for human and animal health (harm reduction) or, conversely, facilitate changes that lead to positive outcomes (health promotion). I propose to develop and test a new quantitative framework - the Ecological Change and Infectious Disease (ECID) pipeline - a nimble approach for assessing disease system resilience and predicting of the impacts of ecological change on disease dynamics. Resilience is the capacity to withstand a perturbation or recover quickly after an impact, a concept with a rich research history in both Engineering and Ecology but with limited application in Epidemiology. The ECID pipeline bridges this conceptual gap, linking analytical approaches from all three fields to identify specific vulnerabilities to ecological change and assess their combined impact on disease system resilience. While many components of the ECID pipeline have existed for some time in their respective fields, connecting disciplines to create the necessary framework for rigorously evaluating the impacts of ecological change on disease system dynamics represents a major interdisciplinary innovation likely to influence future research directions in each connected field. This specific theme is central to the rapidly emerging research area of One Health (the interface between animal, human and ecosystem health), providing a much-needed quantitative framework for testing One Health questions involving complex disease systems.