Ecological change and the dynamics of zoonotic disease

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We know that changing ecology can shift the balance of disease systems but why are some systems more vulnerable to change than others? What influences the magnitude of impact an ecological perturbation has on disease dynamics, and the probability that resulting changes are irreversible? Despite the accumulation of evidence linking ecological change to fundamental shifts in disease systems, this emerging research area at the interface between Ecology and Epidemiology lacks a solid theoretical foundation allowing the impacts of ecological change on disease dynamics to be quantified, modelled and compared across systems. Filling this knowledge gap is essential if we want to: 1) identify disease systems that are particularly vulnerable to ecological change, 2) pinpoint which aspects of these systems contribute disproportionately to changes in disease system dynamics and 3) develop strategies and policies to mitigate the negative effects of change for human and animal health (harm reduction) or, conversely, facilitate changes that lead to positive outcomes (health promotion). I propose to develop and test a new quantitative framework - the Ecological Change and Infectious Disease (ECID) pipeline - a nimble approach for assessing disease system resilience and predicting of the impacts of ecological change on disease dynamics. Resilience is the capacity to withstand a perturbation or recover quickly after an impact, a concept with a rich research history in both Engineering and Ecology but with limited application in Epidemiology. The ECID pipeline bridges this conceptual gap, linking analytical approaches from all three fields to identify specific vulnerabilities to ecological change and assess their combined impact on disease system resilience. While many components of the ECID pipeline have existed for some time in their respective fields, connecting disciplines to create the necessary framework for rigorously evaluating the impacts of ecological change on disease system dynamics represents a major interdisciplinary innovation likely to influence future research directions in each connected field. This specific theme is central to the rapidly emerging research area of One Health (the interface between animal, human and ecosystem health), providing a much-needed quantitative framework for testing One Health questions involving complex disease systems.