近年来公共交通运行安全隐患日益凸显。公交驾驶员在复杂城市道路环境中信息认知和处理能力不足，以及乘员风险感知水平不足而采取危险乘车行为，均为公交事故主要致因。然而，目前对公交运行事故致因和调控对策尚未开展系统研究。本研究以公交运行安全问题为研究对象，深入挖掘公交运行过程中人-车-路-环境与运行安全的动态关系，发掘公交事故演化机理，建立复杂城市交通环境下公交碰撞事故风险实时预测模型；开展道路实验提取公交乘员风险感知状态定量评价指标，建立“态度-感知-行为”模型，利用车辆平顺性建立乘员风险感知状态实时评估模型，以提供运行控制参数设置安全性依据，缓解或避免乘员非碰撞事故；提出面向安全的公交运行控制方法，运用仿真实现并评价控制算法，协调公交安全与效率两者的关系。本研究尝试利用公交运行控制保障安全，为城市公交运营管理提供理论依据和决策支持。

Public transit bus safety problems get more and more serious nowadays. Transit bus incidents mainly result from two perspectives: 1) drivers' ability issues during perceiving and processing the information from the complex roadway environment; and 2) passengers' dangerous behaviors when their risk perception level is low. However, studies on the analysis of incident causation and control strategies are still required. First, this study aims at exploring the dynamic relationship among human, vehicle, road and environment factors. It studies on traffic incident transition mechanism and establishes a real-time prediction model for bus collision risk. Second, this study conducts road experiments to extract indexes for quantifying bus passengers' risk perception. It builds an "attitude-perception-behavior" model which estimate passenger risk perception based on their ride comfort. The estimation model can provide safety basis for control parameter settings so that the control method can relieve or avoid non-collision incidents. Third, this study proposes and evaluates a safety-oriented bus operation control method to balance safety and efficiency. This study attempts to improve transit bus safety, provides theory basis and decision-making support for urban transit management.