热带印度洋海盆模变化对东亚夏季气候的影响机理及其相关预测技术研究

以往研究表明热带印度洋海盆模能通过多个途径影响到东亚夏季气候，而这些途径之间的联系尚不清楚，从而缺乏在整体上理解热带印度洋海盆模对东亚夏季气候的影响。本项目针对目前研究的不足，深入研究热带印度洋海盆模对各个东亚夏季气候子系统的影响，分析子系统异常之间的联系，在整体上提出热带印度洋海盆模影响东亚夏季气候机理的示意图，并利用该机理评估热带印度洋海盆模对东亚夏季灾害性气候的影响。在此基础上，建立一个包含热带印度洋因子的东亚夏季气候动力-统计预测模型，并结合海气耦合模式参加东亚气候的短期预测。项目的研究成果将有助于同时揭示东亚夏季气候变异机制，且能够为我国短期气候预测服务，具有重要的科学和社会意义。

Previous studies show that Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) can affect East Asia summer climate through several approaches. The interaction among them is not clear. It connot lead to the systematic understanding of the influences of IOBM on East Asia summer climate. Aimed at the insufficient understanding, the project intends to study the effects of IOBM on the subsystems of East Asia summer climate, investigate the association among the subsystems and present a systematic diagram on the influences of IOBM on East Asia summer climate. The associated mechanism will be used to evaluate the impact of IOBM on summer climate disaster in East Asia. Moreover, we will set up a dynamics-statistics prediction model of East Asia climate in which IOBM is an impact factor. Using it and the atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model, we intend to attend the short-term climatic prediction on East Asia. The future results of this project will provide some new observational evidence and theory for the dynamics of East Asia monsoon, and will provide some guidance for short-term climate prediction. The results are of great scientific and social significance.