全球变暖背景下海洋的快慢响应过程及对东亚区域气候的影响

全球变暖情景下，海洋存在着两种不同时间尺度的响应：快和慢响应过程。尽管国际上早就认识到海洋这两种时间尺度的响应，但其相关的气候效应（特别是区域效应）却缺乏研究。为了应对气候变化的影响，人类社会正在采取减少温室气体排放等措施以限制全球增暖的幅度，这可能会导致未来温室气体浓度达到一定程度后平稳或下降。在这一情景下，海洋慢响应过程将发挥重要作用。因此为了准确预估未来低增暖情景下东亚地区的气候变化情况，需要全面理解海洋快和慢响应过程在其中的作用。本项目拟研究海洋快和慢两种响应过程对东亚气候的影响机制；分析不同碳排放情景下海洋快、慢响应气候效应相对重要性的演变；在此基础上评估低增温情景下东亚气候灾害风险变化。项目的实施将使我们更准确而充分地理解海洋在气候变化不同阶段当中的作用，并且为未来东亚气候预估提供重要的理论基础。同时也为国家应对气候变化、巴黎协定以及一路一带等大的国家战略提供理论支持。

Ocean responds to global warming at fast and slow timescales. Although the two responses have been revealed for decades, their climatic effects, especially their impact on regional climate, are lack to be understood. To mitigate climate change, human community is planning to take measures to reduce carbon emission, and this would lead to a decrease in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration in the future. In such scenario, the slow response of ocean will play an important role to mediate global and regional climate. Therefore, understanding the distinct climatic effects due to the fast and slow responses will help to project East Asian climate change, especially under future low warming scenario. This project aims to separate the fast and slow responses of ocean to global warming, reveal their impact on East Asian regional climate, demonstrate their relative importance of fast and slow responses to East Asian climate change, and estimate the climate risk of East Asia under low warming scenario. The implementation of this project will improve the understanding of the role of ocean in different stages of climate change and give guideline for the projection of future East Asian climate. Furthermore, it will provide scientific and technical support for the nation to well respond in climate change, "Paris Agreement" and "Road and Belt" strategy.