青藏高原和印度洋对东亚夏季风的协同作用

东亚夏季风影响着东亚大部分地区的天气、气候变化以及人民的生产生活，在影响东亚夏季风环流的诸多因子中，印度洋和青藏高原至关重要。人们对于青藏高原和印度洋的热力影响，以及它们分别在全球变暖背景下的响应等问题，进行了一系列的研究。然而，以往研究中，统一考虑青藏高原和印度洋协同作用对东亚夏季风影响的工作相对较少。本申请项目拟通过观测、模拟资料的统计分析和数值模拟的手段，研究青藏高原和印度洋协同作用在年际和年代际尺度上对东亚夏季风的作用，研究全球变暖对这种协同影响的调节作用，并对其未来的变化进行预估。这对于提高我国短期气候预测的准确性，增强防灾减灾的能力，推进国民经济和社会的发展，都有着重要的科学意义和理论价值。

East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) exerts great influences on the weather, climate change and society in most part of East Asia. Among the influence factors of the EASM, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the Indian Ocean (IO) are two of the most important. Series of studies have been conducted on the thermodynamics of the TP and IO and on the their response to global warming. However, the combined effects of the TP and the IO were less paid attention to. Through data analysis and simulation, the project plans to investigate the synergistic effects of the TP and the IO on EASM on interannual/interdecadal timescale and the modulation of global warming on the synergistic effects, as well as the projection of global warming on the effects. The study is of vital importance to improvement of short-term climate prediction, prevention/reduction of natural disasters and the promotion of social and economic development in China.