私人汽车拥有与使用行为的实证研究

私人汽车拥有与使用行为研究是国内外学术界的研究热点之一。国内既有研究多数利用区域或国家统计数据，通过建立回归模型分析汽车拥有量的影响因素，而基于家庭或个人行为数据的私人汽车拥有与使用模型尚不多见。本项目在系统总结国内外既有研究成果的基础上，收集整理我国主要城市统计数据，从宏观角度分析影响我国私人汽车拥有量的主要因素；同时设计RP/SP组合调查问卷，收集我国私人汽车拥有与使用行为数据，从微观角度构建私人汽车拥有模型、车型选择模型和汽车使用模型，分析家庭或个人属性、汽车属性、交通环境属性、政策属性对我国私人汽车拥有与使用行为的影响程度，并对若干交通政策和汽车产业政策进行评价。 本项目的研究成果可为汽车拥有量预测和交通需求预测提供理论与技术支撑，为制定交通政策和汽车产业政策等公共政策提供决策依据。本项目具有重要的科学研究意义和应用价值。

Car ownership and usage has been one of the research topics for academia, public and private sectors over the world. There are a number of studies on the general relationship between the car ownership and variables such as average incomes or population density at regional or country level in China, however, there is little research on the behavioral models based on disaggregate data, a further research in this field is necessary. This study aims to model private car ownership and usage based on the disaggregate data collected with a combined RP (revealed preference) and SP (stated preference) survey in Dalian, China. The study begins with an overview of the previous research in the field, and this is followed by an examination of the determinants of private car ownership in China, using longitudinal data from 36 Provincial Capitals and Cities Specially Designated in the State Plan since 1990s. The 36 target cities are representative in terms of population, economic and social development, and the target time period covers the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, 2003 SARS event, 2008 Beijing Olympic Games as well as 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis. The research presents a design of a combined RP and SP survey which is conducted in Dalian. In the survey, the questionnaire on the choices of the number of cars, vehicle type and usage is included. Multinomial logit model of car ownership, nested logit model of vehicle type, and discrete-continuous model of car usage are estimated with the survey data. Finally, a sensitivity analysis with a number of policy scenarios regarding the Vehicle Quota System, park charging and alternative fuel vehicles are conducted.