近年来登革热在热带和亚热带地区不断加剧，已成为一个重大的公共卫生问题，如何有效控制登革热的流行和扩散是当前的研究重点和热点。由于缺乏有效的疫苗和特异的治疗手段，蚊虫密度控制被公认为当前防控登革热的唯一有效途径。但是，伊蚊密度阈值确定问题上的争议为我国乃至世界登革热媒介防控工作带来了一定的难度和困扰。目前普遍应用于登革热预防的伊蚊密度阈值是针对黄热病设定的，迫切需要确定一个专门针对登革热爆发的伊蚊密度阈值。本课题拟以广东省和香港为例，探索适合于我国登革热疫情特征的伊蚊密度阈值及其关键技术。利用受试者工作特征曲线技术，以2005-2012年实际疫情为金标准来设定蚊虫密度的阈值，并以两地2013-2015年登革热爆发情况进行修正和验证。本研究还将利用logistic回归模型来定量评估基于伊蚊密度阈值的登革热爆发风险。伊蚊密度阈值的设定将会优化和完善我国登革热的日常监测、预警和防控工作。

In recent years, Dengue fever transmission has been increasing signifiacntly, predominantly in some tropical and subtropical countries and areas, and has become a major international public health issue, including in Southern China. It is a challenge how to effectively prevent and control dengue fever due to lack of an effective vaccine and absence of specific treatment drugs, the most effective way available so far is mosquito control strategies. However, there has been no criterion for Aedes mosquito density threhold specifically proposed for Dengue fever; the currently used criterion is specifically for Yellow Fever rather than Dengue fever, which lacks scientific basis. The current study aims to explore the proper Aedes mosquito density threshold for Dengue fever outbreaks in China (using Guangdong Province and Hong Kong as study areas).Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curve) will be utilized to examine the threshold using county/month as the observation unit, the cut-point which has the most area under the curve will be selected as the Aedes mosquito density threshold. The determination of this threshold will be an complementary section of the ongoing mosquito surveillance and particularly critical for effective dengue risk assessment, prevention and control evaluation in China.