卫生人力供需平衡是实现卫生系统功能的基本前提。当前我国卫生人力总量不足，地区、层级、专业间结构性失衡严重，如儿科、精神科、全科医生数量严重不足。虽采取了诸多应对措施及策略，但效果欠佳，近十年间人员流失、短缺进一步加剧，影响健康中国战略推进。国内外研究均提示，应对卫生人力供需失衡问题需要“供需整合+系统响应”。因此，如何构建我国卫生人力的供需整合模型并研制系统的响应机制是需要突破的关键问题。.本研究拟基于人力资源管理和供需理论，构建供需整合理论框架，系统梳理影响因素，形成影响因素集；在此基础上，运用多种需求预测方法组合分析需求发展趋势；基于代理人基模型和蒙特卡洛随机模拟，构建需求导向的卫生人力供给预测模型；依据供需整合预测结果，研制系统响应机制并开展实证研究，形成包含“目标集-措施集-策略集-模式集”的响应路径及工具包。为有效缓解卫生人力供需失衡，实现系统响应提供技术支撑。

The balance between supply and demand of health workforce is the premise of health system implementation. The current status of health workforce of China is insufficient, especially the structural imbalance among different regions, levels and specialties. Although government has taken multitude of response strategies to deal with the imbalance, little improvement was found. The loss of health workforce is increasing and the shortage is deepening during the past decade, which seriously affects the promotion of healthy China strategy. The key to solve the problem lies in supply-demand integration and systematic and forward-looking response strategies. Associated factors of health workforce supply and demand are complex and changeable, therefore it is crucial to make scientific prediction, and this is the key difficulty that needs to be broken through. Agent-based simulation provides feasible technical support..The study is based on the theory of supply-demand and human resource management, and aims to: constructing a theoretical framework of health workforce supply-demand integration; systematically sorting out the set of factors affecting supply and demand; analyzing the development trend of demand based on current situation analysis and forecasting methodologies. The study also aims to: analyzing the different states of workforce and different behavioral choices among the states by working lifespan method and constructing a demand-oriented health workforce supply ABM model. Based on the predictions of demand and supply, a target-measurement-strategy response toolkit will be developed, and the filters rule will be proposed to solve the problem. The simulation response mechanism will be investigated and optimized in sample area, and eventually form a projection model and systematically response strategy which available for application, and effective for relieving the imbalance between the supply and demand of health workforce.