空气污染会对劳动力市场产生影响，进而影响区域和行业的经济发展，但目前对此还缺乏全面系统的基于实证分析和模型模拟的研究。定量估计空气污染通过劳动力带来的经济影响及其区域和行业的差异，既可以增进关于环境污染外部性的科学认识，又可为地方与行业有效实施污染治理提供重要依据和经济动力，具有学术价值与政策意义。为此，本项目基于计量经济模型和可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型建立一套中国分区域“空气污染-劳动力-经济发展”的全链条模拟模型，用实证研究方法揭示空气污染对劳动生产率、劳动供给等方面的影响；将该影响耦合进分区域环境CGE模型中以模拟不同区域/行业因污染造成的劳动力变化所带来的经济影响；在此基础上，探索分区域分行业空气污染治理行动的优化方案和政策建议。本项目希望通过耦合计量经济模型和CGE模型的方法在定量估计空气污染的经济影响方面提出新的科学认识和决策支持工具。

Air pollution has an impact on the labor market which further affects the regional and industrial economic development. However, there is still a lack of systematic research based on empirical analysis and model simulation. Quantitative estimates of air pollution impact on the economy through labor and identifying differences among regions and industries have both academic value and policy significance. It can not only enhance the scientific understanding of the externalities of environmental pollution, but also provide important basis for effective implementation of pollution control policies. Therefore, the project will establish a multi-region simulation model for China including an air pollution-labor-economic development chain based on econometric model and computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, revealing the impact of air pollution on labor productivity and labor supply by using empirical research methods, simulating the economic impact of changes in labor caused by pollution in different regions and sectors by coupling the impact into the multi-region environment CGE model, and exploring the optimization of air pollution control policies on the basis. This project aims to propose new scientific knowledge and policy support tools for quantifying the economic impact of air pollution by coupling econometric model and CGE model.