Precisely wrong or roughly right? An evaluation of development viability appraisal modelling
Precisely wrong or roughly right? An evaluation of development viability appraisal modelling
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完全错误还是大致正确？
DOI：
10.1108/13664381111179224
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Byrne P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Byrne P
研究目的：探讨模型结构和尺度的选择对开发可行性评价的影响。本文讨论了两个问题，发展评估技术的应用，英国规划系统内的可行性建模。第一个涉及到的程度，给定的内在输入的不确定性，模型结构的选择显着影响模型的输出。第二个问题涉及到的程度，给定的内在输入不确定性，模型的复杂性水平显着影响模型outputs.Design/方法/途径-蒙特卡罗模拟程序应用到一个假设的发展计划，以衡量模型的聚集和结构对模型输出variance. Findings的影响，它的结论是，给定特定的计划建模和可接受的主观假设的输入方差，简单和过分简化的模型可能产生与更健全和分类的模型类似的产出。证据被发现的equifinality在一个简单的，汇总模型的发展可行性相对于更复杂的，分解models.Originality/value-Development可行性评估的规划系统中变得越来越重要的输出。因此，发展评价的理论、应用和产出受到广泛用户的严格审查。然而，很少有发表的可行性模型的评估。本文有助于在这方面的有限的文献。
Purpose–The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of choices of model structure and scale in development viability appraisal. The paper addresses two questions concerning the application of development appraisal techniques to viability modelling within the UK planning system. The first relates to the extent to which, given intrinsic input uncertainty, the choice of model structure significantly affects model outputs. The second concerns the extent to which, given intrinsic input uncertainty, the level of model complexity significantly affects model outputs.Design/methodology/approach–Monte Carlo simulation procedures are applied to a hypothetical development scheme in order to measure the effects of model aggregation and structure on model output variance.Findings–It is concluded that, given the particular scheme modelled and unavoidably subjective assumptions of input variance, that simple and simplistic models may produce similar outputs to more robust and disaggregated models. Evidence is found of equifinality in the outputs of a simple, aggregated model of development viability relative to more complex, disaggregated models.Originality/value–Development viability appraisal has become increasingly important in the planning system. Consequently, the theory, application and outputs from development appraisal are under intense scrutiny from a wide range of users. However, there has been very little published evaluation of viability models. This paper contributes to the limited literature in this area.
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