Clustering of susceptible individuals within households can drive measles outbreaks: an individual-based model exploration.
Clustering of susceptible individuals within households can drive measles outbreaks: an individual-based model exploration.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-020-76746-3
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发表时间：
2020-11-12
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Hens N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kuylen E;Willem L;Broeckhove J;Beutels P;Hens N
在估计群体免疫阈值等重要指标以及消除麻疹所需的相应努力时，通常假设易感个体均匀分布在整个人群中。然而，未接种疫苗的个体可能以各种方式聚集，包括地理位置，年龄，学校或家庭。在这里，我们调查在何种程度上不同水平的家庭内聚集的易感个体可能会影响麻疹暴发的风险和持续性。为此，我们应用基于个人的模型，大步，人口的60万人，从比利时弗兰德斯的数据。我们构建了一个度量来估计人口中家庭内易感性聚集的水平。此外，我们比较现实的情况下，家庭内的易感个体的分布方面的影响，流行病学措施的爆发风险和持久性。我们发现，家庭内易感人群聚集程度越高，麻疹暴发的风险、规模和持续性就越大。因此，忽视家庭内的聚集性会导致低估消除麻疹和缓解疫情所需的努力。
When estimating important measures such as the herd immunity threshold, and the corresponding efforts required to eliminate measles, it is often assumed that susceptible individuals are uniformly distributed throughout populations. However, unvaccinated individuals may be clustered in a variety of ways, including by geographic location, by age, in schools, or in households. Here, we investigate to which extent different levels of within-household clustering of susceptible individuals may impact the risk and persistence of measles outbreaks. To this end, we apply an individual-based model, Stride, to a population of 600,000 individuals, using data from Flanders, Belgium. We construct a metric to estimate the level of within-household susceptibility clustering in the population. Furthermore, we compare realistic scenarios regarding the distribution of susceptible individuals within households in terms of their impact on epidemiological measures for outbreak risk and persistence. We find that higher levels of within-household clustering of susceptible individuals increase the risk, size and persistence of measles outbreaks. Ignoring within-household clustering thus leads to underestimations of required measles elimination and outbreak mitigation efforts.
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Israeli, Avi
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