Non-Poissonian Earthquake Recurrence Models for Engineering Seismic Hazard Analysis

本研究项目旨在对统计地震重现模型进行广泛、系统的研究，以改进工程地震灾害分析。要研究的模型范围从现有的更新模型到各种新模型，包括(1)“特征地震过程”，(2)混合和耦合滑动时间可预测模型，(3)以及沿断裂面时空变化的随机模型。这套模型将被交互式地使用，例如，更基于物理的模型有助于支持和/或约束更经验的模型。将对不同的模型进行关于再发预测和现场危害分析的比较数值研究。这种比较将设定当前（泊松）模型有效性的极限。还需要考虑参数的不确定性，以及“面源区”的新表示。高级首席研究员因其在地震工程研究和实践方面的许多贡献而享誉国际，特别是在本研究领域。副研究员也证明了他对这个项目的贡献能力。他们有必要的机构设施，主要研究人员有望在地震危害评估方面取得重大进展。

This research project is for a broad, systematic investigation of statistical earthquake recurrence models, with the objective of improving engineering seismic hazard analysis. The models to be studied range from current renewal models to a variety of new models, including (l) "characteristic earthquake processes," (2) hybrid and coupled slip-time predictable models, (3) and stochastic models of spatial and temporal variation along the fault plane. This suite of models will be used interactively, e.g., the more physically- based models helping to support and/or constrain the more empirical models. Comparative numerical studies will be made with the different models concerning both recurrence predictions and site-hazard analyses. This comparison will set the limits of validity of current (Poisson) models. Also to be considered are the parameter uncertainties, as well as a new representation of the "areal source zone." The senior principal investigator is internationally recognized for his many contributions to earthquake engineering research and practice, especially in the area of this study. The associate investigator has also demonstrated his ability to contribute to this project. They have the necessary institutional facilities, and together the principal investigators are expected to make a significant advance in seismic hazard assessment.