Decision Making and Measurement: Search for a Coherent System of Theories Interlocked by Measurements

该提案概述了一项雄心勃勃的行为调查， 决策理论的目标是建立一个连贯的 衡量效用和价值的方法。 以往的研究 预期效用产生了两个结果：第一，各种 对效用理论的重大而可靠的违反， 报道 第二，标准理论的几种变体 被要求对这些违规行为负责。 拟议 研究的目的是开始构建一个行为- 一致的框架。 拟议研究背后的一个中心思想是寻找一个 在各种任务中的共同效用尺度潜在行为。 目标是确定是否有可能提供 描述行为的效用方程的连贯系统 决策。 委托人制定的程序 其他领域研究人员将被应用于开发一个 研究的框架。 所提出的方法具有 解释各种现象和解决 文学中的一些争议。 即使提议的 努力不工作，实验将产生有趣的 新的发现，这将提高对风险决策的理解。 总之，这个项目的潜在回报是巨大的。

This proposal outlines an ambitious investigation of behavioral theories of decision making with the goal of building a coherent method for measurement of utility and value. Previous studies of expected utility have produced two results: First, a variety of significant and reliable violations of utility theory have been reported. Second, several variations of the standard theory have been proposed to account for these violations. The proposed research is designed to begin the construction of a behaviorally- based coherent framework. A central idea behind the proposed research is the search for a common utility scale underlying behavior in a variety of tasks. The goal is to determine whether it is possible to provide a coherent system of utility equations to describe behavioral decision making. Procedures developed by the principal investigator in other domains will be applied to develop a framework for the research. The proposed approach has the potential to account for a wide range of phenomena and to resolve several controviersies in the literature. Even if the proposed effort does not work out, the experiments will yield interesting new findings which will enhance understanding of risky decisions. In all, the potential return from this project is substantial.