A Factorial Survey On How People Experience Climate Change

这个项目的长期目标是发展一种理论， 人们对气候变化的感受和反应。 虽然一些 的研究人员探讨了人们对 在环境问题上，几乎没有实证研究如何 人们体验气候。 该提案旨在探讨 个人对气候和气候变化的看法，沿着 他们对一些具体政策选择的反应。 这些 将通过访谈调查获得反应， 提出了“小气候”设想方案和一揽子政策， 来自洛杉矶地区的1500名成年人。 调查问卷将 设计了一个析因实验。 四个参数 下垫面小气候温度或降水 将通过随机分配改变分布。 同样， 政策包将通过随机选择四个 从一个更大的列表。 这将是一个试点研究 以确定这种方法的可行性。 数据将 使用新的统计技术进行分析， 这些数据的水平性质和一个截断的，分类的 应对措施。

The long-range goal of this project is to develop a theory of how people experience and react to climate variation. While a number of researchers have explored people's views and values on environmental issues, there is virtually no empirical work on how people experience climate. This proposal is to explore individuals' perceptions of climate and climate change, along with their reactions to some concrete policy options. These reactions will be obtained through an interview survey in which "micro-climate" scenarios and policy packages are presented to 1500 adults from the Los Angeles area. The questionnaire will be designed for a factorial experiment. Four parameters of an underlying micro-climate temperature or precipitation distribution will be varied by random assignment. Likewise, the policy packages will be constructed by randomly selecting four proposals from a much larger list. This is to be a pilot study to determine the feasibility of this method. The data will be analyzed using new statistical techniques addressing the multi- level nature of these data and a truncated, categorical set of response measures.