Use of Heuristics in Probability Judgement

人们经常面临不确定结果的决定。过去的研究表明，人们不是根据概率论做出判断，而是使用有限数量的启发式。然而，关于选择启发式的过程的研究很少。本研究计划拨款提案探讨了每种启发式何时使用的问题。首席研究员提出，人们有多种启发，但其中一种占据默认位置。该计划是开发一种实验方法来测量启发式在概率判断中的使用。这种方法将用于检查影响启发式选择的因素。该项目将确定能够提高概率估计准确性和提高涉及不确定性的决策质量的条件。

People are often faced with decisions involving uncertain outcomes. Rather than making judgments in accord with probability theory, past research suggests that people use a limited number of heuristics. There has been little research, however, on the process by which heuristics are selected. This proposal for a Research Planning Grant examines the question of when each heuristic is used. The principal investigator proposes that people have multiple heuristics, but that one occupies a default position. The plan is to development an experimental methodology for measuring heuristic use in probability judgment. This methodology will be used to examine factors which influence heuristic selection. The project will identify conditions which can improve the accuracy of probability estimation and enhance the quality of decisions involving uncertainty.