Predictability of Mesoscale Precipitation

可预测性的限度问题 大气层是我们面临的最基本的问题之一 气象学家 在这个领域进行的大部分研究都有 强调大尺度的可预报性 大气流动 根据这些早期的研究，悲观 为局地天气预报提供了依据 事件（如暴雨），称为中尺度事件 气象学家 然而，最近的工作提供了 有证据表明，中尺度天气预报可能不像 如最初建议的那样有限;然而，没有太多的研究 在这方面做过。 使用数值模型，主要研究者将 进行了一系列旨在解决这个问题的实验 中尺度降水的可预报性。 的一些任务 要采取的是确定范围的变化， 中尺度降水的可预报性 时间和空间平均;并使用混沌的概念 理论和奇异吸引子来描述降水 过程

The question of the limits of predictability of the atmosphere is one of the more fundamental questions facing meteorologists. Most of the research performed in this area has emphasized predictability characteristics of large-scale atmospheric flows. Based on these earlier studies, pessimistic conclusions were drawn for the forecasting of localized weather events (e.g. heavy rainfall), termed mesoscale events by meteorologists. More recent work, however, has provided evidence that forecasting of mesoscale weather may not be as limited as originally suggested; however, not much research has been done in this area. Using a numerical model, the Principal Investigator will perform a number of experiments designed to address the question of predictability of mesoscale precipitation. Some of the tasks to be undertaken are to determine the variation of range of predictability of mesoscale precipitation with respect to temporal and spatial averaging; and to use the concepts of chaos theory and strange attractors to characterize the precipitation process.