Predictability of Mesoscale Precipitation

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The question of the limits of predictability of the atmosphere is one of the more fundamental questions facing meteorologists. Most of the research performed in this area has emphasized predictability characteristics of large-scale atmospheric flows. Based on these earlier studies, pessimistic conclusions were drawn for the forecasting of localized weather events (e.g. heavy rainfall), termed mesoscale events by meteorologists. More recent work, however, has provided evidence that forecasting of mesoscale weather may not be as limited as originally suggested; however, not much research has been done in this area. Using a numerical model, the Principal Investigator will perform a number of experiments designed to address the question of predictability of mesoscale precipitation. Some of the tasks to be undertaken are to determine the variation of range of predictability of mesoscale precipitation with respect to temporal and spatial averaging; and to use the concepts of chaos theory and strange attractors to characterize the precipitation process.