Accomplishment Based Research: Substantive and Measurement Issues in the Productivity Growth Slowdown

美国服务业生产率几乎零增长的第二个十年即将结束。这项研究的目的是确定和分析这种不令人满意的表现的原因，以及它对美国生活水平未来增长的威胁意义。本项目分为三个主要部分。第一部分包括对生产率测量方法差异的国际比较。一些衡量数据对美国有利，尤其是在制造业，美国在电脑价格指数方面几乎是独一无二的。其他考虑因素有助于解释美国的糟糕表现和非制造业中更有利的外国表现，特别是在诸如建筑，运输，银行和金融等行业中，在外国账户中更多地使用实物衡量产出。这项研究将对美国和其他四个主要国家测量方法的差异进行连贯的描述。项目的第二部分分析了生产率表现差异的原因，特别是假设美国服务业的劳动力报酬较低，导致相对于一些服务业相对工资较高而劳动力使用率相对较低的欧洲国家的劳动力使用率较高。这一假设将在不同行业和国家的工资和生产率表现的比较中得到检验。最后一部分将包括对个别美国行业的详细研究，这些研究提出了衡量和实质性问题的组合。在先前对美国运输和公用事业行业的生产力行为产生新见解的基础上，该项目的这一部分将重点关注银行、金融和零售业。

The United States is now reaching the end of its second decade of virtually zero growth in productivity in the service sector. The purpose of this research is to determine and analyze the reasons for this unsatisfactory performance, with its threatening implications for the future growth of the American standard of living. This project is divided into three major components. The first consists of an international comparison of differences in productivity measurement-methods. Some facts of measurement favor the U.S., particularly in the manufacturing sector, where the U.S. is almost unique in its use of a hedonic price index for computers. Other considerations help to account for a poor U.S. performance and the more favorable foreign performance in non- manufacturing, particularly the greater use in foreign accounts of physical measures of output in such industries as construction, transportation, banking, and finance. This research will develop a coherent account of differences in measurement methods in the U. S. and four other leading nations. The second part of the project analysis the causes for the differences productivity performance, particularly the hypothesis that labor in U.S. service industries is poorly paid, leading to a high use of labor relative to some European countries where the relative wage in the services is higher and the use of labor relatively lower. The hypothesis will be tested in a comparison of wage and productivity performance across industries and countries. The final component will consist of detailed studies of individual U.S. industries which raise a combination of measurement and substantive issues. Building on previous work that yielded new insights on productivity behavior in the U.S. transportation and utility industries, this part of the project will focus on banking, finance, and retailing.