COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: Effect of Global Climatic Change onRegional Hydrology

提出了一种多机构合作获取反映气候变化情景的区域水文量时空序列的方法。要调查的地理区域包括亚利桑那州中部和内布拉斯加州的普拉特河下游盆地。该方法是基于对大气环流型的发生、持续和转变概率的分析。这些模式是每天根据可用的可靠数据定义的压力面。本研究分为三个阶段。在第一阶段，将寻求对流通模式进行分类；然后，每种类型的模式在一个条件框架中与当地时空降水、径流、温度和风相关联。温度和风被用来定义区域干旱指数。使用相对简单的流域模型将降水转化为径流。在研究的第二阶段，利用现有的GCM输出来定义可能的环流降水、径流、温度和区域干旱的日时间序列情景。最后，将区域水文事件的历史序列与各种情景预测进行比较。在研究的第三阶段，将以犹他州的大盐湖为例，分析气候变化的后果。

A multi-institutional effort is proposed to obtain space-time series of regional hydrological quantities reflecting climatic change scenarios. The geographical areas to be investigated cover central Arizona and the lower Platte river basin of Nebraska. The approach is based on an analysis of the occurrence, persistence and transition probabilities of atmospheric circulation patterns. These patterns are defined daily as pressure surfaces using available and reliable data. The proposed research consists of three phases. In the first phase, a classification of circulation patterns will be sought; each type of pattern is then related in a conditional framework to local space-time precipitation, runoff, temperature, and wind. Temperature and wind are used to define regional drought indices. Precipitation will be transformed into runoff using relatively simple watershed models. In the second phase of the research, available GCM outputs are used to define scenarios of possible daily time series of circulation precipitation, runoff, temperature, and regional droughts. Finally, the historical series of regional hydrologic events can be compared to the various scenario predictions. In the third phase of the research, the consequence of climatic change will be analyzed by taking the example of the Great Salt Lake in Utah.