Capital Utilization and Policy Reform in Dynamic EquilibriumEconomics

现代商业周期理论的出发点是，增长和波动不是不同的现象，不能用不同的模型来研究。该项目的第一部分侧重于在生产数据中发现的单个工厂水平上的产量变化属性与总体水平上的产量变化属性之间的显著差异。本项目构建了一个一般均衡经济模型，该模型与在总体时间序列中观察到的长期增长特征一致，但在该模型中，生产发生在以与微观证据一致的方式运行的单个工厂。在标准模型中，在工厂、企业或总量的水平上的产出波动之间没有区别。在标准模型中，假定的科布-道格拉斯生产函数不同于聚合技术。该项目研究了该模型所显示的总波动的性质，并将其与标准实际商业周期模型的周期性质进行了比较。这项研究有望为我们对经济增长的理解做出方法论和实质性的贡献。在方法上，它改进了经济增长基本模型的微观经济基础。从本质上讲，它提高了我们对不同微观层面技术影响经济增长变异性和水平的方式的理解。这项基础研究最终可能对减缓全球环境变化的技术对经济增长的长期影响的研究的科学可信度和准确性具有重要意义。该项目的第二部分在动态一般均衡模型中探讨经济政策改革的福利后果。“基本政策”是通过将模型校准为实际政策的特征而得到的。对美国来说，这意味着严重依赖资本和所得税。下一步是评估这一基本机制的政策变化。例子包括从资本所得税转向劳动或消费税，转向更加依赖通货膨胀税，以及政府在政府高消费时期（如战争）或糟糕的技术冲击时期（如能源成本意外增加）如何应对。这项研究将加深我们对与政策改革相关的福利收益的理解，这些政策改革涉及从现有政策转向最优或似是而非的最优政策。

Modern business cycle theory starts with the view that growth and fluctuations are not distinct phenomena to be studied using separate models. The first part of this project focuses on significant differences found in production data between the properties of output variation at the individual plant level and output variation at the aggregate level. This project constructs a general equilibrium model economy that is consistent with the features of long run growth observed in aggregate time series, but in which production takes place at individual plants that operate in a manner consistent with the micro evidence. An aggregate technology is derived that differs from the Cobb- Douglas production function assumed in standard models in which there are no distinctions between output fluctuations at the level of the plant, the firm or the aggregate. The project studies the properties of the aggregate fluctuations exhibited by the model and compares them with the cyclical properties of a standard real business cycle model. This research promises both methodological and substantive contributions to our understanding of economic growth. Methodologically it improves the microeconomic foundations of the basic model of economic growth. Substantively, it improves our understanding of the way different micro-level technologies influence the variability and the level of economic growth. This basic research eventually could prove significant for the scientific credibility and the accuracy of studies of the long- term consequences for economic growth of technologies for mitigating global environmental change. The second part of the project explores the welfare consequences of economic policy reforms in dynamic general equilibrium models. A "base policy" is derived by calibrating the model to features of actual policies. For the U.S., this means heavy reliance on capital and income taxation. The next step is to evaluate policy changes from this base regime. Examples include a shift from capital income taxation to labor or consumption taxation, a shift to heavier reliance on inflation taxation, and how the government responds in periods of high government consumption (such as wars) or periods of bad technology shocks such as an unexpected increase in energy costs. This research will sharpen our understanding of the welfare gains associated with policy reforms that involve moving from existing policies to optimal or plausible sub-optimal policies.