The Biennial Oscillation and El Nino/Southern Osillation (ENSO) Dynamics

最近的观测指出，厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)有一个很强的两年一次的组成部分，它与平均季节周期密切相关。该计划的主要目标是设计和测试一系列简单的海-气耦合模式，以解决需要考虑两年一次的振荡的假设，以便更好地预测ENSO现象。该计划是开发一系列模型，以一个中间的ENSO大气-海洋耦合模式结束，该模式将具有与观察到的季节变化有关的年际变化。这些模型将根据现有的观测数据进行验证。将检验两个过程以确定模式的有效性：蒸发对海温的影响以及对流和风的季风循环对年际变化的影响。

Recent observations pointed out that there is a strong biennial component in the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which is closely related to the mean seasonal cycle. The major objective of this program is to design and test a hierarchy of simple coupled air-sea models to address the presumption that the biennial oscillation needs to be accounted for, in order to better predict the ENSO phenomena. The plan is to develop a hierarchy of models that will end with an intermediate ENSO coupled atmosphere-ocean model which will have interannual variability related to seasonal variability as observed. The models will be validated against available observations. Two processes will be examined to determine the validity of the models: the effect of evaporation on SST and the influence of monsoonal cycle of convection and winds on interannual variability.