What is a World Worth? Value Elicitation for Global Environmental Problems

9309428 Fischhoff全球环境问题给社会带来了困难和深远的决定。 与其他明显和重要的社会问题一样，在决策过程中征求和纳入公众意见的努力往往因现有的调查技术而受挫。 如果要让公众有意义地参与这些决策，就需要满足以下几个条件：（a）需要征求公众中有代表性的成员的意见;（B）征求意见过程的参与者需要了解不同政策对其家庭、社会和世界的影响;（b）征求意见过程的参与者需要了解不同政策对其家庭、社会和世界的影响。（c）参与者需要阐明其基本价值观对特定政策的影响;（d）参与者必须以能够反映其复杂性、强度和不确定性的方式表达其意见;以及（e）意见必须以一种能够得出其对社会决策的影响的方式加以汇总。 这项研究提出了一种满足这些条件的方法。 实施这一方法需要对启发过程中的不同步骤进行重点调查，包括：制定一致的政策问题;阐明不同选择的影响;设计和标准化响应模式;以及评估程序。 本研究将为开发一种新的偏好和价值诱导工具提供基本的方法和检验。 研究的后期阶段将展示该工具，并在更多参与者中进行更正式的测试。 ***

9309428 Fischhoff Global environmental problems pose difficult and far reaching decisions for societies. As with other visible and important societal problems, attempts to elicit and incorporate views of the public in the decision making process are often frustrated by available survey techniques. If the public is to be involved meaningfully in these decisions, then several conditions need to be met: (a) the views of representative members of the public need to be elicited; (b) participants in the elicitation process need to understand the impacts of different policies on their households, societies, and the world; (c) participants need to articulate the implications of their basic values for particular policies; (d) participants must express their opinions in a way that captures their complexity, intensity, and uncertainty; and (e) opinions must be aggregated in a way that derives their implications for societal decision making. This research advances an approach to meeting these conditions. Implementing the approach requires focused investigations of the different steps in the elicitation process including: formulating a coherent policy issue; explicating the implications of different options; designing and standardizing the response mode; and evaluating the procedure. The research will provide fundamental methods and tests to develop a new tool in preference and valuation elicitation. Later phases of the research will demonstrate the tool and test it more formally with larger numbers of participants. ***