On the Physics of Droughts

9318339 Kavvas该项目的目标是开发：一个基于物理的二维气候模式（在纬向和纬向方向），描述大气-海洋-陆地相互作用的物理学;对美国和北方各种可能的干旱成因机制的相对重要性的理解。 此外，使用该模型来检查干旱演变（包括人为终止）中的反馈过程;并进行蒙特卡罗模拟来研究干旱的启动、演变和终止的特征，并开发相应的概率分布。 这项工作的结果将提高预测干旱发生、演变和持续时间的质量，并可能最终有利于受干旱影响的人们的福祉和经济发展。 ***

9318339 Kavvas The objectives of the project are to develop: a physically-based two dimensional climate model (over zonal and meridional directions)describing the physics of atmosphere-ocean-land interactions; an understanding of the relative importance of various possible drought-causing mechanisms over the United States and the northern hemisphere. Also, to use the model for examining the feed-back processes in the evolution of droughts including anthropogenic termination; and for performing Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the characteristics of initiation, evolution and termination of droughts and to develop the corresponding probability distributions. The results from this work will advance the quality of forcasting the onset, evolution and duration of droughts and may eventually benefit the well being and economic development of people exposed to droughts. ***