Effect of Demographic and Economic Cycles on Migration Timing and Regional Migraproduction

小行星9408379 该提案将从理论和经验上研究人口周期群组效应和经济周期效应对移徙时间的影响。 以前的文献表明，这些周期在确定移民的“水平”方面具有很大的影响力：由于劳动力市场竞争激烈和就业机会减少，青年人的高峰移民率往往在大群体和经济衰退时期较低。 这项研究表明，人口和经济周期也可能影响移徙的“时机”。 它建立在研究的基础上，这些研究表明，出生在大群体中的人或那些在童年早期面临困难经济条件的人经常推迟进入劳动力市场。 研究的第一部分使用1948-1988年的当前人口调查数据来调查（1）一个队列在人口周期中的位置对其高峰迁移时间的影响，以及（2）特定时间的经济状况和趋势对高峰迁移率时间的影响。 研究的第二部分将探讨区域人口和经济周期如何通过其对移徙水平和时间的影响，影响终生移徙预期或移徙生产。 使用随时间推移的队列规模和经济状况的区域数据，估计美国九个人口普查地区的移民年龄表和移民生产率。 研究第一部分的结果将有助于人口和宏观经济条件对行为影响的理论文献。 研究第二部分的结果将使我们更好地理解宏观经济对空间人口流动的影响。 总的来说，这项研究将对人口和经济周期与个人行为的联系做出重要贡献，这反过来又将为美国移民的原因和后果提供新的政策见解。

9408379 PANDIT This proposal will examine, theoretically and empirically, the influence of demographic cycle cohort effects and economic cycle period effects on migration timing. Previous literature has shown that these cycles are highly influential in determining the "level" of migration: peak migration rates of young adults tend to be lower for large cohorts and during recessionary economic times because of competitive labor markets and depressed job opportunities. This study suggests that demographic and economic cycles may also influence the "timing" of migration. It builds on studies that have shown that individuals born into large cohorts or those facing difficult economic conditions in their early childhood frequently postpone their entry into the labor force. The first part of the research uses 1948-1988 Current Population Survey data to investigate (1) the effect of a cohort's location in the demographic cycle on the timing of its peak migration, and (2) the effect of economic conditions and trends at a given time on the timing of peak migration rates. The second part of the research will explore how regional demographic and economic cycles, through their effect on the level and timing of migration influence lifetime migration expectancy or migraproduction. Using regional data on cohort size and economic conditions over time, migration age-schedules and migraproduction rates are estimated for the nine U.S. census regions. The findings from the first part of the study will contribute to the theoretical literature on the influence of both demographic and macroeconomic conditions on behavior. Findings from the second part of the study will refine our understanding of macroeconomic influences on spatial population flows. Overall, this study will make an important contribution to the linkage of demographic and economic cycles to individual behavior which, in turn, will provide new policy insights into the causes and consequences of migration within the U.S. ***