Short-range Ensemble Prediction with the NCEP Eta Model

小行星9508645 本研究的目的是探讨应用目前集合天气预报方法预测0-2天（即，短期集合预报（SREF）。 主要的研究目标是表征现有的扰动方法是否以及何时可以用于SREF。研究中使用的主要数据集由国家环境预测中心（NCEP）定期制作。 将通过80公里eta模式集合输出与单次运行高分辨率（29公里）eta区域模式预报和嵌套网格模式（NGM）的模式输出统计（MOS）的比较来判断集合的有用性。 重点将是确定在何种条件下使用现行方法是有效的，以及何时可以采用其他方法。 该奖项为一个博士研究项目提供支持，该项目在改善业务短期预报方面也具有相当大的潜力。 ??

9508645 Colucci The purpose of this research is the explore the feasibility of applying current ensemble weather forecast methodologies to predicting the sensible surface weather for forecasts of 0-2 days (i.e., short-range ensemble forecasting, or SREF). The primary research goal is to characterize if and when the existing perturbation methodology may be used for SREF. The principal datasets to be employed in the study are produced routinely by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The usefulness of the ensembles will be judged by comparisons of the 80 km eta model ensemble output with the single-run, high resolution (29 km) eta regional model forecasts and Model Output Statistics (MOS) from the Nested Grid Model (NGM). The focus will be on determining under what conditions the use of current methodologies is effective and when other methodologies might be employed instead. This award provides support for a doctoral research project that also has considerable potential for improving operational short-term forecasting. ??