Baroclinic Wave Lifecycle and Storm Track Dynamics

9510008常气旋和反气旋的发展演变在很大程度上控制着中纬度地区的天气。这些天气系统发生在被称为风暴路径的首选区域。重要的是要了解可能导致这些系统的形成和演变的过程。最近的观测和模拟研究表明，气旋和反气旋主要发生在局部波包内。初步研究表明，局域波包内这些系统的结构、演化和发展可能与传统的斜压不稳定理论所提出的完全不同。张博士打算通过诊断欧洲中期预测中心和国家环境预测中心的观测分析，以及通过使用简化模型物理的原始方程模型进行数值实验，深入探索这些系统在局部化波包中的演化。这项研究的结果将对中期天气预报(大约一到两周)具有重要意义。*？？

9510008 Chang The development and evolution of cyclones and anticyclones control, to a large extent, the weather in the mid-latitudes. These weather systems occur in preferred regions termed the storm tracks. It is important to understand the processes that can lead to the formation of these systems and their evolution. Recent observational and modelling studies have revealed that cyclones and anticyclones occur predominantly within localized wave packets. Preliminary studies suggest that the structure, evolution, and development of these systems within localized wave packets can be quite different from those suggested by traditional theories of baroclinic instability. Dr. Chang intends to explore in depth the evolution of these systems within the localized wave packets by diagnosing observational analyses from the European Centre for Medium Range Prediction and the National Center for Environmental Prediction and by conducting numerical experiments with a primitive equation model with simplified model physics. The results of this research will have important implications for medium range weather prediction (on the order of one to two weeks). *** ??