Doctoral Dissertation: Mapping the Territory of Uncertainty and Ignorance: Broadening Current Assessment and Policy Approaches

这项资助是为博士论文增强奖提供的。目前评估全球变化不确定性的努力主要局限于技术和科学的不确定性。对科学不确定性的处理未能解决涉及全球变化的人类层面的更广泛的不确定性。本文研究的第一个目标是通过探索如何将社会不确定性和无知领域纳入不确定性分析，帮助拓宽不确定性分析和评估，超越全球变化的物理动态。实质性的背景是人类引起的海平面上升（SLR）对美国东部和墨西哥湾沿岸的自然和社会系统的潜在影响。其次，本研究旨在评估目前在政策制定和管理系统中如何处理不确定性，以及如何更好地应对这些不确定性，以便人类对气候变化和SLR做出更有效的反应。本研究旨在(1)提供一个更广泛的不确定性和无知的概念框架，作为对全球变化不确定性进行更具包容性和更有力评估的基础；(2)评估当前科学不确定性和海平面上升影响的评估和管理工作；(3)指出不确定性评估和高不确定性、高风险情况的决策和管理的改进场所，这些情况包括人类维度的不确定性和无知。f8 Û-ªþ + Ûª烧ÑOhª‘ +’ª0 Ý +] $ H l +¢S u m m a r I I （++++++++++++ &amp； Û ++++++++++++ ++++++++++++）++++++++++++ D h + *发送备忘录，键入子R:\WWUSER\TEMPLATE\NORMAL。点

Moser, S. This support is for a Doctoral Dissertation Enhancement Award. Current efforts in the assessment of uncertainty in global change are largely confined to technical and scientific uncertainties. The treatment of scientific uncertainty fails to address the broader uncertainties involved in the human dimensions of global change. The first goal of this dissertation research is to help broaden uncertainty analysis and assessment beyond the physical dynamics of global change by exploring how social uncertainties and the domain of ignorance can be incorporated into uncertainty analysis. The substantive context is that of potential impacts from human-induced sea-level rise (SLR) on the natural and social systems along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts. Second, the study aims to assess how uncertainties are currently addressed in policy-making and management systems and how they may better be confronted to allow for a more effective human response to climate change and SLR The study aims to (1) contribute a broadened conceptual framework of uncertainty and ignorance as a basis for a more inclusive and robust assessment of uncertainties in global change, (2) evaluate current scientific uncertainty and sea-level rise impact assessment and management efforts, and (3) point toward venues of improvement both for uncertainty assessment and for policy-making for and management of high-uncertainty, high-stake situations that incorporate human-dimension uncertainties and ignorance. f8 Û-ª þ + Ûª▓ ÑOh ª' +'ª▒0 Ý + ] $ H l + ¢ ╗ S u m m a r y I n f o r m a t i o n ( ++++++++++++ & Û ++++++++++++ ++++++++++++ ++++++++++++ D h + *send the memo, to type the sub R:\WWUSER\TEMPLATE\NORMAL.DOT