Collaborative Research on Candidate Emergence in U.S. House Elections

梅塞尔9515332国会选举中为公民提供的选择的性质和质量对美国民主的健康至关重要。在以候选人为中心的选举政治舞台上，很大程度上取决于选择(或不选择)参选的个别候选人。在美国众议院选举中，这个问题在很大程度上归结为一个非常显著的在任优势：当现任总统决定竞选连任时，他或她被认为是非常难以击败的。因此，可能会为选民提供重要选择的潜在强有力的候选人不会出现来挑战现任议员。因此，普通的挑战者资历不足、资金不足，对该地区的选民来说相对看不见。其结果是，众议院选举往往没有竞争性，选民做出的选择被扭曲，不利于现任议员的显著优势。1994年选举导致的戏剧性的党派变化可能并没有扰乱长期在位效应，尽管它可能在其他方面戏剧性地改变国会选举选择的轮廓。在这项调查中，研究人员将通过调查潜在众议院候选人的全国样本来检查候选人的出现情况。研究人员认为，在任何一年进入众议院竞选都有两个相关的“决定”：竞选众议院席位的总体承诺和参加特定竞选的具体决定。调查人员认为，总体竞选承诺是几乎所有众议院候选人的必要条件，源于对公共政策结果的强烈兴趣，对众议院是一个有吸引力和可取的服务机构的感觉，以及担任公职的雄心。总的来说，这些变数在本质上不是“战略性”的。相比之下，调查人员辩称，在特定年份参选的决定在很大程度上受到潜在候选人赢得党内提名和大选(如果被提名)的可能性的影响。研究人员提出了一种预期的实用模型，它结合了这些战略和更长期的考虑，以及潜在候选人必须承担的竞选成本。研究人员在早期先导研究的基础上进行了一项分两个阶段的研究。第一阶段涉及对美国各地区的全国样本中的举报人进行调查。对当地事务有政治意识的告密者。他们将提供有关选区、现任议员以及可能竞选美国众议院议员的潜在候选人的信息。第二阶段涉及调查与美国众议院选区样本重叠的州议员。这是第一次确定和研究美国众议院强有力的潜在候选人样本的调查，将大大加强我们对影响候选人在国会选举中脱颖而出的因素的了解。***

Maisel 9515332 The nature and quality of the choice citizens are offered in congressional elections is central to the health of American democracy. In the candidate-centered arena of electoral politics, a great deal depends upon the individual candidates who choose (or choose not ) to run. Much of the problem reduces to a very significant incumbency advantage in U.S. House elections: when the incumbent decides to run for reelection, he or she is perceived as very difficult to beat. As a result, potentially strong candidates who might offer voters a significant alternative do not emerge to challenge the sitting member. The average challenger, therefore, is underqualified, underfunded, and relatively invisible to voters in the district. The result is that House elections often are not competitive, and the choice voters make is distorted to the significant advantage of incumbents. The dramatic partisan change that resulted from the 1994 election probably did not disturb the long-term incumbency effect, although it may dramatically alter the contours of congressional-election choice in other ways. In this investigation the researchers will examine candidate emergence by surveying a national sample of potential House candidates. The researchers argue that there are two "decisions" relevant to entering a House race in any particular year: a general commitment to run for a House seat and a specific decision to run in a given race.; The investigators contend that the general commitment to run is a necessary condition for virtually all House candidates and results from a strong interest in public policy outcomes, a sense that the House is an attractive and desirable institution in which to serve, and an ambition to hold public office. By and large, these variables are not "strategic" in nature. In contrast, the investigators argue that the decision to run in a specific year is heavily influenced by the potential candidate's perceived chances of winning his or her party's nomination and , if nominated, the general election. The researchers suggest an expected utility model that combines these strategic and longer-term consideration, along with the costs potential candidates must bear to make a run. The investigators carry out a two-stage study building on an earlier pilot study. The first stage involves a survey of informants in a national sample of U.S. districts. Informants who are politically aware of local affairs. They will provide information about the district, the incumbent, and about potential candidates who might run for the U.S. House of Representatives. The second stage involves surveying state legislators who districts overlap with the sample U.S House districts. This is the first investigation to identify and study a sample of strong potential candidates for the U.S. House and will enhance substantially our understanding of the factors that influence candidate emergence in congressional elections. ***