MMIA: Hierarchical Approach to Integrated Assessment of Climate and Land Use Changes with an Application to the Central United States

9523612十多年来，对人类活动与全球环境的复杂相互作用进行了研究，建立了侧重于与复杂整体脱钩的离散问题的模拟计划(例如，单一部门研究、组成部分之间缺乏反馈、关键关系的部分表述、人类与生物物理系统之间的联系不明确)，从而使这些计划成为政策工具薄弱。需要综合评估(IA)来更完整地对整个人类-环境系统进行建模。执行机构正在开展几项工作，其中大部分是高度空间和部门聚集的形式。为了在区域、国家和全球模型评估中实现对土地利用和生态变化的可靠估计，需要多少空间和部门细节的问题几乎没有得到关注；这就是本拟议研究要解决的问题。假设需要一个空间层次的建模来呈现复杂的人类-环境系统。研究目标是：(1)建立世纪陆地生态系统模型和FASOM经济模型之间的信息联系，以评估美国大平原人地环境系统随气候变化的变化；(2)识别和量化控制地方和区域尺度土地利用决策的关键人类环境因素；(3)相对于聚合区域分析，评估美国大平原人地环境系统对局部尺度土地利用决策的敏感性。

9523612 Easterling The complex interplay of human activities and the global environment has been examined for over a decade with modeling schemes that focus on discrete problems that are decoupled from the complex whole (e.g., single sector studies, lack of feedbacks between component parts, partial representation of key relationships, poorly specified linkages between human and biophysical systems) thus making such schemes weak policy tools. Integrated assessments (IA) are needed to more completely model whole human-environment systems. Several IA efforts are under way, most of a highly spatially and sectorally aggregated form. Little attention has been given to the question of how much spatial and sectoral detail is necessary in order to achieve reliable estimates of land use and ecological changes in regional, national, and global modeling assessments; such is the question to which this proposed research is addressed. It is hypothesized that a spatial hierarchy of modeling is needed to present complex human-environmental systems. The research objectives here are: (1) to develop information linkage between the Century terrestrial ecosystem model and the FASOM economic model in order to assess changes in the human-environmental system of the U.S. Great Plains in response to climate changes; (2) to identify and quantify the critical human environmental factors controlling land use decisions at local and regional scales; and (3) to evaluate the sensitivity of the human-environmental system of the U. S. great Plains to local scale land use decisions relative the aggregated regional analysis.