The Nature and Predictability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation Using Statistical and Dynamical Modeling Approaches

摘要ATM-9616582 Chang，Ping Texas A M University ATM-9616439 Penland，Cecile University of Colopado题目：用统计和动力学模拟方法研究厄尔尼诺-南方涛动的性质和可预报性 该建议将讨论非线性动力学和随机过程在热带短期气候变率中的相对重要性，如厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）。 争论的焦点是变量的潜在动态是否稳定，其中嵌入了多少非线性结构，以及不同的动态对模型的预测技能有什么影响。 为了阐明这些问题，建议进行一系列的统计和动力学模型的数值实验。 这项研究将增进我们对ENSO性质的了解，并可能加强我们预测ENSO的能力。

Abstract ATM-9616582 Chang, Ping Texas A & M University ATM-9616439 Penland, Cecile University of Colopado Title: An Investigation of the Nature and Predictability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation Using Statistical and Dynamical Modeling Approaches This proposal will deal with the relative importance of nonlinear dynamics and stochastic processes in the short term climate variability in the tropics, such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). At issue is whether underlying dynamics of the variabilities are stable, how much nonlinear structure is imbedded in them and what impact the different dynamics have to the predictive skill of a model. To shed light on these issues, it is proposed to conduct a series of numerical experiments with both statistical and dynamical models. This research will enhance our knowledge of the nature of ENSO and might strengthen our ability to predict ENSO.