How is the stratospheric water vapour affected by climate change, and which processes are responsible? (SHARPI-WV)

将扩大MIPAS的水蒸气（H2O）和HDO观测数据集以及SCIAMACHY的H2O观测数据集，并进一步提高数据质量。将通过适当的数据合并产生一个“全卫星”数据集，其中包括SAGE、HALOE、SMR、MLS、MIPAS和SCIAMACHY的数据，涵盖1984年至2014年的30年。将分析MIPAS和SCIAMACHY数据记录的时间序列异常（磁带记录器、季风系统）、潜在趋势以及与热带对流层顶温度等其他大气量的相关性，重点是HDO数据记录。将使用SHARP中可用的改进瞬态和灵敏度模型运行进行类似分析。将把H2O建模纳入EMAC的拉格朗日版本，并将进行个案过程研究，以分析H2O向平流层的迁移。模拟的H2O场将与MIPAS提供的H2O数据集进行比较。对于ECHAM 5/MESSy，将寻求在对流层顶不产生寒冷和干燥偏差的更高分辨率版本。将对多目标大气指数-M的CMIP 5模拟进行水蒸气分析，并将内部变率与气候变化信号进行比较。将根据观测和模型数据方面甲烷增长的最新变化，重新评估甲烷对平流层水汽收支的作用。

Observational data sets of water vapour (H2O) and HDO from MIPAS and H2O from SCIAMACHY will be extended and further improved in data quality. An “all-satellite” data set containing data of SAGE, HALOE, SMR, MLS, MIPAS and SCIAMACHY and covering 30 years from 1984 to 2014 will be generated by appropriate data merging. The MIPAS and SCIAMACHY data record will be analysed regarding the anomalies of the time series (tape recorder, monsoon systems), potential trends, and correlations to other atmospheric quantities like tropical tropopause temperature, with some focus on the HDO data record. Similar analysis will be performed with improved transient and sensitivity model runs available within SHARP. H2O modelling will be included in the Lagrangian version of EMAC, and case process studies will be performed to analyse the H2O transport into the stratosphere. The modelled H2O fields will be compared to H2O data sets made available from MIPAS. For ECHAM5/MESSy, a higher resolved version not producing the cold and dry bias in the tropopause will be sought for. The CMIP5 simulations of MPI-M will be analysed regarding water vapour, and internal variability will be compared to climate change signals. The role of methane for the stratospheric water vapour budget will be re-assessed in the light of recent changes in methane growth, both from the observational and model data side.