The Conservation of Trans-National Marine Fish Stocks: A Game-Theoretic Analysis

第1页日期1997年6月25日提案/裁决摘要DBI-9708475 PI姓名：McKelvey 实现世界海洋鱼类种群养护和可持续捕捞的国际条约已证明是难以捉摸和不稳定的。爆发了令人震惊的暴力“鱼类战争”，使合作安排陷入混乱， 渔业社区经济萧条，鱼类种群面临崩溃的危险。 这个项目的目的是重新审查，在现代博弈论的概念，这种合作的不稳定性的核心原因， 管理，并确定可能证明更稳定的新的体制安排。 拟议的工作涉及制定和分析两国联合管理的"共享“渔业的博弈模型，在这种渔业中，鱼类随着跨越国界的迁移而按顺序捕捞。 这些模型必然是动态的，因为战略互动是由过去的业绩以及预测的未来环境决定的。 重点放在无处不在的不确定性和不完整信息的作用，这是常见的决策。有待研究的具体问题有： 1)体制上的激励措施导致对船队和加工设施的过度投资; 2)保护和可持续性的长期目标与社会经济稳定的短期目标之间的权衡; 3)策略性相互作用，取决于捕捞鱼种生态群落的特定生态结构;以及 4)设计体制安排，以促进在不确定和无法预料的情况下对海洋渔业进行稳定的合作联合管理。 该项目的资金由MPS的计算数学，应用数学和多学科活动办公室以及BIO的计算生物学活动提供。

Page 1 Date JUN 25 97 Abstract for Proposal/Award DBI-9708475 PI NAME: McKelvey International treaties for achieving conservation and sustainable harvest of the world's marine fish stocks have proved to be elusive and unstable. Astonishingly violent "fish wars" have erupted, leaving cooperative arrangements in disarray, fishing communities economically depressed, and fish stocks at risk of collapse. This project is designed to reexamine, in the light of modern game-theoretic concepts, the core reasons for this instability of cooperative management, and to identify new institutional arrangements which might prove to be more stable. The work proposed involves formulation and analysis of game-theoretic models of a bi- national jointly managed ``shared'' fishery, where the stocks are harvested sequentially as they migrate across national boundaries. The models are necessarily dynamic, since strategic interactions are conditioned by past performance, as well as by projected future circumstances. Emphasis is placed on pervasive uncertainty and the role of incomplete information that is common in decision making. Specific issues to be studied are: 1)institutional incentives which have led to over-investment in fleets and processing facilities; 2) tradeoffs between long term goals of conservation and sustainability and short term goals of socioeconomic stability; 3) strategic interactions, conditioned by the particular ecological structure of the ecological community of harvested fish species; and 4) the design of institutional arrangements which can promote stable cooperative joint management of a marine fishery in uncertain and unanticipated circumstances. Funding for this project is provided by the programs of Computational Mathematics, Applied Mathematics, and the Office of Multidisciplinary Activities in MPS, and by the Computational Biology Activity in BIO.