The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics of the Coupled Atmosphere- Ocean System

Vallis, Geoffrey K.加利福尼亚大学圣克鲁斯分校大气-海洋耦合系统的地球物理流体动力学该项目将用新颖但动态合适的模型研究大气-海洋耦合系统的地球物理流体动力学。这项工作将集中在中纬度地区的动态，主要是十年或更长时间尺度的现象。该项目的目标是隔离和理解产生可变性和限制这些时间尺度上的可预测性的特定和健壮的机制。PI将采取的方法不同于使用gcm的更传统方法，但它是一种补充。PI使用原始运动方程的合理近似值来推导适合于感兴趣的时间和空间尺度的模型，包括大气和海洋。然后对它们进行耦合和数值积分。这些模式基于对潜在动力学的合理近似，是真实大气和海洋中发生的潜在机制的可靠指标。最后，但并非最不重要的是，这些模型将为解释更复杂的GCM实验提供一个工具。该提案的文本中描述了有待探索的具体机制和有待检验的假设，其主要目标是了解这些过程的基本动力学和可预测性，从而了解大气或海洋单独或耦合相互作用可产生长期变率的程度。尽管对耦合gcm进行了大量研究，但对耦合相互作用导致长时间尺度变异性的动力学了解甚少，而且这种变异性的大小和重要性尚不清楚。此外，与年际或千年时间尺度上的变率机制相比，对年代际至世纪时间尺度上的气候变率的研究和理解可能要少一些，尽管年际或千年时间尺度上的变率机制显然很重要。

Abstract ATM-9710285 Vallis, Geoffrey K. University of California, Santa Cruz The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics of the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System The PI will investigate the geophysical fluid dynamics of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system with novel but dynamically appropriate models. The effort will concentrate on mid-latitude dynamics, and primarily on phenomena with timescales of a decade and longer. The goal of the project is to isolate and understand specific and robust mechanisms which produce variability and limit predictability on these timescales. The approach the PI will take is different from, but complementary to, more conventional approaches using GCMs. The PI uses rational approximations of the primitive equations of motion to derive models appropriate for the time and space scales of interest, for both atmosphere and ocean. These are then coupled and integrated numerically. By basing the models on rational approximations to the underlying dynamics, the models are reliable indicators of the underlying mechanisms occurring in the real atmosphere and ocean. Last, but by no means least, the models will provide a tool for the interpretation of more complex GCM experiments. Specific mechanisms to be explored and hypotheses to be tested are described in the text of the proposal, with the primary goal of understanding the basic dynamics and predictability of these processes, and thereby the extent to which long-term variability can be produced by either atmosphere or ocean alone, or by coupled interactions. In spite of much study with coupled GCMs, the dynamics of coupled interactions leading to variability on long timescales are poorly understood, and the magnitude and thus importance of such variability is not known. Further, climate variability on the decadal to century time scale is perhaps less well studied and understood than the mechanisms of variability on either interannual or millennium timescales, in spite of its manifest importance.