Collaborative Research on Sequential Voting

适用于大型选举的空间投票的传统正式理论分析几乎只关注选民同时做出选择的选举。在许多情况下，这是一个准确的描述，尽管投票可能在一段时间内依次进行，但选民通常在不知道之前投票的人所做的选择的情况下做出选择。然而，在其他一些值得注意的大型选举中，选民群体在知道同一次选举中较早的选民所做选择的情况下做出选择。在这项调查中，研究人员专注于顺序投票的一个特别有趣的案例：美国总统初选。在总统初选制度中，初选较晚的州的选民在做出选择时知道较早的州的初选结果。然而，政党的提名取决于早期和后期州的投票结果。因此，由于初选制度，决定提名的投票是依次进行的。在本研究中，调查人员关注顺序投票与同时投票的两种不同方式，以及投票过程导致不同结果的可能性。首先，在顺序投票过程中有可能进行信息聚合，而在同步投票过程中不可能进行信息聚合。其次，如果投票是顺序的，那么候选人在投票过程中退出选举的可能性就很独特。当前的研究通过检验风险偏好差异对投票行为和候选人选择的作用，扩展了早期对信息聚合的调查。在此基础上，扩展了理论模型，考虑了候选人退出对这些因素的影响。研究包括对理论预测的实验检验。

Traditional formal theoretical analyses of spatial voting applied to large elections have focused almost exclusively on elections in which voters make their choices simultaneously. In many cases this is an accurate portrayal and although voting may take place sequentially over a period of time, voters typically make their choices without the knowledge of the choices made by those who have voted earlier. However, there are other notable large elections in which groups of voters make choices with knowledge of the choices made by earlier voters in the same election. In this investigation, the researchers focus on a particularly interesting case of sequential voting: presidential primaries in the United States. In the presidential primary system voters in states that have later primaries know the outcomes of the primaries in earlier states when they make their choices. However, the nomination of the party is a function of the votes in both early and later states. Thus, voting that determines the nomination, because of the primary system, occurs sequentially. In this research the investigators focus on two ways in which sequential voting is different from simultaneous voting and the possibility that the voting process leads to different outcomes as a consequence. First, there is the possibility for information aggregation during the sequential voting process that is not possible under simultaneous voting. Second, when voting is sequential there is the unique possibility for candidates to withdraw from the election during the voting process. The current research extends an earlier investigation of information aggregation by examining the role of differences in risk preferences on the voting behavior and candidate selected. The research is then extends the theoretical model to consider the effects of candidate exit on these factors. The research consists of experimental tests of the theoretical predictions.