Biodiversity Consequences of Global Climate Change in Mexico

彼得森97-11621 .对大气中二氧化碳积累所导致的气候变化幅度的研究预计将影响地球环境的许多方面，尽管其中许多影响的幅度尚不清楚。本研究旨在整合墨西哥生物多样性数据库、专题地理数据、最新卫星图像信息和全球气候变化简单模型，对这些变化对该地区鸟类、哺乳动物和蝴蝶物种的影响进行一系列预测，首次评估全球气候变化对生物多样性的影响。对先进甚高分辨率辐射计图像的多季节分析将用于制作详细的区域植被图，该图将与现有的环境图和数据库相结合，以确定生境类型的特征。二氧化碳浓度升高和其他气候变化因素影响的简单模型将用于模拟未来植被类型和栖息地分布和范围的变化。将根据已知发生地点的特征预测个别物种的地理分布；基于从气候变化预测中发展出来的未来转变模型，物种的未来分布将被建模，并推断出灭绝和殖民。总体结果将是对未来几十年或几个世纪墨西哥预期的气候变化对生物多样性的影响的评估，以及几种方法和模型的发展，这些方法和模型将对其他对类似和相关问题感兴趣的研究者有用。

Peterson 97-11621 Studies of the Magnitude of climate changes expected resulting from buildup of atmospheric CO2 are predicted to affect many facets of the Earth's environments, although the magnitude of many of these effects is unknown. This study aims to integrate data bases regarding the biodiversity of Mexico, thematic geographic data, up-to-date information from satellite imagery, and simple models of global climate change into a series of predictions of the effects of these changes on species of birds, mammals, and butterflies in the region, a first assessment of the biodiversity consequences of global climate change. Multi-seasonal analysis of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer imagery will be used to produce a detailed region wide vegetation map, which will be combined with existing environmental maps and data bases to characterize habitat types. Simple models of the effects of elevated C02 and other agents of climate change will be used to mimic future shifts in distribution and extent of vegetation types and habitats. Geographic distributions of individual species will be predicted based on characteristics of sites of known occurrence; based on the future-shift models developed from climate change projections, species' future distributions will be modeled, and extinction's and colonization inferred. The overall result will be an assessment of the biodiversity consequences of anticipated climate change over the next several decades or centuries in Mexico, as well as the development of several methods and models that will be useful to other investigators interested in similar and related issues.