Integrated micro- and macroscopic Aeronautical Risk Assessment based on technical, procedural and human performance factors with limited parameter sets

在一期工程(历时三年)中，研究了基于仿真的大型交通枢纽机场航站区空管风险评估方法。传统的基于故障/事件树分析的安全评估方法(蝴蝶结)不能满足这一领域的具体需求，因为没有系统地涵盖对不可预见/未知故障模式的预测。然而，对于同质的空中交通管制部门，细粒度的蝴蝶结模型被证明是合适的，代价是参数和状态空间较大。因此，转移到更复杂的终点区是不可行的。相比之下，基于智能体的模拟技术是一种很有前途的替代技术，它展示了已经具有有限参数集的紧急行为模式。在此基础上，构思并实现了由基于主体的微观构件和基于航行性能的宏观构件组成的综合安全评估模型。然而，蝴蝶结领域众所周知的重大因果关系的转移导致了巨大的参数空间，有效地限制了对比较分析的验证(将排队模型应用于现实世界的雷达数据集)。下一个项目阶段的目标是研究iSBM所需的详细程度，以便以有用、有效的方式减少参数空间。由此产生的、经过充分验证的iSBM应为与操作概念有关的安全相关设计问题提供答案，例如程序规划，特别是在早期设计阶段。

During the first project phase (lasting three years), simulation-based ATM risk assessment methods for the terminal area of large traffic hub airports were researched. Classic safety assessment methodology based on fault/event-tree analyses (bow-tie) fall short of the specific needs in this domain, as the prediction of unforeseen/unknown failure modes is not covered methodically. Yet, for homogeneous en-route air traffic control sectors, fine-grained bow-tie models were shown to be suitable, with the price of large parameter and state spaces. A transfer to the more complex terminal area is thus not feasible. In contrast, agent-based simulation techniques which exhibit emergent behavioral patterns already with limited parameter sets are a promising alternative. Consequently, an integrated safety assessment model (iSBM) consisting of an agent-based microscopic component and a navigation performance based macroscopic component was conceived and implemented. However, the transfer of significant causal interrelations well-known the bow-tie domain resulted in a vast parameter space, effectively constraining validation to the comparative analyses (application of queuing models to real-world radar data sets). The aim of the next project phase is to research the required level of detail of the iSBM in order to reduce the parameter space in a useful, efficient manner. The resulting, fully validated iSBM shall provide an answer to safety-relevant design questions concerning operational concepts, e.g. procedure planning, especially in early design phases.