Enhanced Flight Planning by introducing stochastic trajectory data

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Along the large scale project Single European Sky, EUROCONTROL issued its latest ATM masterplan to pave the way for the next generation ATM System beyond 2020. One pillar of the masterplan refers to the introduction of 4D user preferred business trajectories claiming for a 4D Trajectory management and thus a punctual and efficient air traffic system. To gain insight on both the level of precision and of robustness of a given trajectory for varying look ahead times, stochastic modeling is considered promising to improve the flight planning process. We aim at identifying and describing statistically all relevant error inputs to it and determining the effects onto flight planning quality. To evaluate these models while considering an increase in automation both at ATC and on the flight deck, an appropriately tuned A-MAN, S-MAN and ATC /Aircraft Simulation environment will be jointly used to execute Monte Carlo simulations. The simulation results will be validated through expert (pilots/controller) workshops.