US GLOBEC: Real-Time Data Assimilation on Georges Bank

这些调查人员建议开发、使用和评估乔治斯浅滩地区的实时实况预报/预报系统。该系统的范围将包括与USGLOBEC西北大西洋计划内的环流和目标物种有关的物理和生物变量。其目的是提供联网能力，将现场观测(来自船舶、系泊和漂流仪器以及遥感观测)同化为模拟模型，以便对海洋的实际和生态状况作出最佳估计；利用现有的联网大气预报制作环流预报；审查预报对生态的影响；指导调整实验议定书，以最大限度地发挥其与巡航特定目标的相关性。该系统将由现有的和新兴的GLOBEC工具建立，用于模拟和事后预测乔治斯银行。我们的中心假设是，对详细的物理/生物耦合现象进行实时预报是可能的，只要有足够的技能，就可以调整观测方案。这将在一个能量和复杂的多前沿系统中进行测试，在当代关于耦合生物物理系统本身的实验的操作环境中进行测试。

9806390LynchThese investigators propose to develop, use, and evaluate a real-time nowcast /forecast system for the Georges Bank region. The scope of the system will include physical and biological variables relevant to the circulation and target species within the USGLOBEC Northwest Atlantic program. The intent is to provide networked capability for assimilating in-situ observations (from ship, moored and drifting instruments, as well as remotely sensed observations) into simulation models to provide the best estimate of the physical and ecological state of the ocean; to utilize networkavailable atmospheric forecasts to produce a circulation forecast; to examine the implications of the forecast on the ecology; and to guide the adjustment of the experimental protocol to maximize its relevance for cruise-specific goals. The system will be built from established and emerging GLOBEC tools for simulating and hindcasting Georges Bank. Our central hypothesis is that real-time forecasts are possible for detailed coupled physical/biological phenomena, with sufficient skill to allow adjustment of the observational protocol. This will be tested in an energetic and complex multi-frontal system, in the operational context of contemporary experiments about the coupled biophysical system itself.