Space Weather: Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejection from Vector Magnetograms

摘要：ATM 00- 01266提案标题：根据矢量磁图预测日冕物质抛射首席研究员：大卫法尔科纳，位于亨茨维尔的亚拉巴马大学研究人员将开发太阳活动区全球非潜力的定量测量方法，以预测这些活动区产生与耀斑相关的日冕物质抛射（CMS）。主要的努力是将对四个活跃区域进行的一项有希望的试点研究的结果扩大到30-40个活跃区域的有统计意义的样本。在试点研究中，开发了两种新的无潜力措施（全球净电流和主中性线的长度），并发现它们彼此相关，并与活动区域的整体无潜力相关。此外，这些参数异常大的两种情况下产生了CME。扩大研究将：（1）检验试点研究的初步结论。(2)寻找其他相关性。(3)研究新测量与先前观察到的S形结构的关系。(4)发展将新措施应用于业务预报的技术。

Abstract: ATM 00-01266Proposal Title: Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections from Vector MagnetogramsPrincipal Investigator: David Falconer, University of Alabama in Huntsville The investigator will develop quantitative measures of the global non-potentiality of solar active regions in order to predict generation of flare-associated coronal mass ejections (CMS) by these active regions. The main effort is to expand the results of a promising pilot study of four active regions to a statistical meaningful sample of 30-40 active regions. In the pilot study, two new measures of non-potentiality were developed (global net current flow and length of the main neutral line) and found to be correlated with each other and with the overall non-potentiality of the active regions. In addition, two cases in which these parameters were unusually large produced CME. The expanded study will: (1) Test the tentative conclusions of the pilot study. (2) Search for other correlations. (3) Investigate the relationship of the new measures to the previously observed sigmoidal structures. (4) Develop techniques to apply the new measures to operational forecasting.