Predictability of ENSO

拟议工作的目标是：（一）证明确定和理解ENSO动力学预测的相关性的技术在当前最先进的海洋-大气耦合模式预测系统的代表性横截面中起作用;（二）确定各种预测之间技术差异的物理基础;（iii）研究收集不同模式的预测，对作出较佳预测和显示预测稳健性的效用;及（iv）发展线性预测的一般理论，以扩展及完善迄今所发展的方法。PI建议在一系列数值模式中调查ENSO的可预测性。 这项工作很重要，因为它将导致更好地了解厄尔尼诺/南方涛动的可预测性和热带太平洋变化所涉及的物理过程。提高认识有可能导致更准确的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动预测。

The objectives of the proposed work are to (i) demonstrate that the techniques to determine and to understand the relaibility of dynamical predictions of ENSO, work in a representative cross section of current state of the art coupled ocean-atmosphere model forecast system; (ii) determine the physical basis for the variation in the skill amongst forecasts; (iii) investigate the usefulness of a collection of forecasts from different models in producing both a better forecast and an indication of forecast robustness; and (iv) develop a general theory of linear prediction in order to extend and refine the methodology developed to date. The PI proposes an investigation of the predictability of ENSO in a range of numerical models. The work is important because it will lead to better understanding of ENSO predictability and physical processes involved in tropical Pacific variability. Improvement in understanding is likely to lead to more accurate ENSO forecasts.