Collaborative SGER: Dispersal and Local Population Dynamics Following Large-Scale Fire

Gurevitch 0107406最近佛罗里达野火的人口反应数据提供了扩展和测试人口模型的可能性，我们一直在开发一个新的系统中的沥青松。研究人员建议获得这些数据，参数和测试模型之间的相互作用的扩散和本地种群动态在长叶松和湿地松在佛罗里达flatwoods。至少在下一次重大拉尼娜事件发生之前，预计不会有类似的机会。佛罗里达和美国东南部邻近地区的陆地生态系统强烈依赖于火灾。佛罗里达的火灾频繁发生，因为降雨具有很强的季节性。 这些火灾的强度和范围在不同年份之间变化很大，主要是由于厄尔尼诺-南方涛动。在拉尼娜年，佛罗里达经常经历异常强烈的春季干旱。因此，火灾可能会更强烈，并具有更大的空间范围。2000年春季的干旱是有记录以来最严重的，因此，火灾季节涉及非常大的空间范围和强度的火灾。 造成严重春旱的1999-2000年拉尼娜现象似乎已经结束;所有气候模型现在都预测接下来几年的降雨量正常。因此，数据采集的时间要求很高，特别是在松树林中发生的一些大规模火灾。在这种类型的栖息地--覆盖了佛罗里达半岛的大部分地区--的大部分松树林都是自然分散的。促使这一建议作为一个SGER的是2000年春季火灾的空间范围和这种自然分裂。联合起来，这些因素允许研究招聘的空间组成部分具有异常高的分辨率。由于这类火灾在许多年内不会再发生，因此这项要求有一个时间紧迫的组成部分，这项研究涉及易受干扰人口的人口统计学。模型和数据已经开发的背景下，在纽约州长岛的松树贫瘠的沥青松。 一个特别重要的问题是需要多少空间数据？一个主要的结果是，人口预计将经历重大转变，从当地人口占主导地位的动态林分间扩散为主的动态，作为规模的干扰增加。

Gurevitch0107406Data from population responses to recent Florida wildfires offer the possibility of extending andtesting demographic models we have been developing for pitch pines in a new system. The investigators propose to acquire these data, parameterize and test models on the interaction between dispersal and local population dynamics in longleaf and slash pine in Florida flatwoods. A similar opportunity is not expected to be available until, at least, the next major La Nina event. The terrestrial ecosystems of Florida and adjacent regions of the Southeastern US are strongly fire-dependent. Fire in Florida occurs frequently because rainfall is strongly seasonal. The intensity and extent of these fires varies greatly among years, largely as a result of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation. During La Nina years, Florida often experiences unusually strong spring droughts. Fires can thus be more intense and of greater spatial extent. The drought of Spring 2000 was the most extreme ever recorded, and consequently the fire season involved fires of very great spatial extent and intensity. The 1999-2000 La Nina, which caused the severe spring drought, appears to be over; all climate models are now predicting normal rainfall for the ensuing years. Thus, there is a time -critical aspect to data acquisition.In particular, a number of large-scale fires occurred in pine flatwoods. In much of this type of habitat - which covers much of peninsular Florida -- pine stands are naturally fragmented. What motivates this proposal as an SGER is the spatial extent of the Spring 2000 fires and this natural fragmentation. Jointly, these factors permit study the spatial component of recruitment with unusually high resolution. Because fires of this kind will not recur for many years, there is a time-critical component to this request.This research involves demography in disturbance-prone populations. The models and data have been developed in the context of pitch pines in the pine barrens of Long Island, NY. One question of particular importance is how much spatial data is needed? A principal result is that populations are expected to undergo substantial shifts from dynamics dominated by local demography to dynamics dominated by inter-stand dispersal, as the scale of disturbance increases.