Collaborative SGER: Dispersal and Local Population Dynamics Following Large-Scale Wildfire

福克斯0107465来自最近佛罗里达野火的人口响应数据提供了扩展和测试我们在新系统中为松树开发的人口统计模型的可能性。研究人员建议获取这些数据，对佛罗里达平地的长叶和湿地松的扩散和当地种群动态之间的相互作用模型进行参数化和测试。预计至少在下一次重要的拉尼娜事件之前，不会有类似的机会。佛罗里达州和美国东南部邻近地区的陆地生态系统强烈依赖于火。佛罗里达州经常发生火灾，因为降雨具有很强的季节性。这些火灾的强度和范围在不同年份之间差异很大，主要是由于厄尔尼诺-南方涛动的结果。在拉尼娜年间，佛罗里达州经常经历异常强烈的春旱。因此，火灾可能会更强烈，空间范围更广。2000年春季的干旱是有记录以来最极端的，因此火灾季节涉及到非常大的空间范围和强度的火灾。导致严重春季干旱的1999-2000年拉尼娜现象似乎已经结束；所有气候模型现在都在预测接下来几年的正常降雨量。因此，数据的获取具有时效性，特别是在松树林中发生了多起大规模火灾。在这种类型的栖息地--覆盖了佛罗里达半岛的大部分地区--松林自然是零散的。促使这一提议成为SGER的是2000年春季火灾的空间范围和这种自然碎片化。综合考虑这些因素，可以以异常高的分辨率研究招募的空间组成部分。由于这种火灾在很多年内不会再次发生，这一要求有一个时间上的关键部分。这项研究涉及易受干扰人群的人口学。这些模型和数据是在纽约州长岛松树荒地的沥青松树的背景下开发的。一个特别重要的问题是需要多少空间数据？一个主要结果是，随着干扰规模的增加，种群预计将经历从以当地人口统计为主的动态向以林间扩散为主的动态的重大转变。

Fox0107465Data from population responses to recent Florida wildfires offer the possibility of extending andtesting demographic models we have been developing for pitch pines in a new system. The investigators propose to acquire these data, parameterize and test models on the interaction between dispersal and local population dynamics in longleaf and slash pine in Florida flatwoods. A similar opportunity is not expected to be available until, at least, the next major La Nina event. The terrestrial ecosystems of Florida and adjacent regions of the Southeastern US are strongly fire-dependent. Fire in Florida occurs frequently because rainfall is strongly seasonal. The intensity and extent of these fires varies greatly among years, largely as a result of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation. During La Nina years, Florida often experiences unusually strong spring droughts. Fires can thus be more intense and of greater spatial extent. The drought of Spring 2000 was the most extreme ever recorded, and consequently the fire season involved fires of very great spatial extent and intensity. The 1999-2000 La Nina, which caused the severe spring drought, appears to be over; all climate models are now predicting normal rainfall for the ensuing years. Thus, there is a time -critical aspect to data acquisition.In particular, a number of large-scale fires occurred in pine flatwoods. In much of this type of habitat - which covers much of peninsular Florida -- pine stands are naturally fragmented. What motivates this proposal as an SGER is the spatial extent of the Spring 2000 fires and this natural fragmentation. Jointly, these factors permit study the spatial component of recruitment with unusually high resolution. Because fires of this kind will not recur for many years, there is a time-critical component to this request.This research involves demography in disturbance-prone populations. The models and data have been developed in the context of pitch pines in the pine barrens of Long Island, NY. One question of particular importance is how much spatial data is needed? A principal result is that populations are expected to undergo substantial shifts from dynamics dominated by local demography to dynamics dominated by inter-stand dispersal, as the scale of disturbance increases.