PRecipitation In past Millennia in Europe - Extension - back to Roman times

PRIME-2将结合来自低分辨率和高分辨率陆地和海洋代理数据的信息，研究欧洲和地中海地区过去2000年的气候和水文循环。我们将应用新的复杂统计方法(贝叶斯分层建模)和高分辨率气候模拟来重建具有相关不确定性的温度和降水空间场。重点将放在估计从区域到大陆的不同时间和空间尺度上自然气候变化的幅度，以及估计大尺度温度和外部强迫对欧洲/地中海水文制度的影响。我们还将重点研究从现在到罗马时代自然暖期和冷期/湿期和干期之间的气候过渡，并研究其对过去社会的潜在影响。通过在特定时期进行一系列具有不同强迫配置的区域气候模拟，将弄清轨道、太阳和陆地利用变化等外部强迫因素对水文循环的影响。它们还将被用作试验台，以检查应用于重建温度和降水的统计方法的稳健性。

PRIME-2 will study the climate and the hydrological cycle in Europe and the Mediterranean area over the last 2,000 years, by combining information from low and high resolution terrestrial and marine proxy data. We will apply novel sophisticated statistical methods (Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling) and high-resolution climate modeling to reconstruct spatial fields of temperature and precipitation with associated uncertainties. Emphasis will be placed on the estimations of the amplitudes of natural climate variations at different temporal and spatial scales, ranging from regional to continental, and on the estimation of the influence of large-scale temperatures and external forcings on the European/Mediterranean hydrological regimes. We will also focus on the climate transitions between natural warm and cold / wet and dry periods from present back to Roman times and study the potential implications for past societies. The influence of external forcing factors such as orbital, solar and land use changes on the hydrological cycle will be disentangled by conducting a series of regional climate simulations with different forcing configurations for specific periods. These will also be used as a test bed to check the robustness of the statistical methods applied to reconstruct temperature and precipitation.