Space Weather: Prediction with Cosmic Rays

这项提议的活动旨在利用位于日冕物质抛射(CME)激波锋下游的宇宙射线密度被抑制的区域--“福布什下降”，以4-8小时左右的提前时间预测日冕物质抛射(CME)激波锋到达地球的时间。Muon探测器和中子监测器将被用来探测从“福布什下降”等离子体中逃逸的高能粒子的损失锥各向异性。从这些信息中，有可能推断出对太阳喷射物的方向和范围有用的限制条件。主要的努力将是通过在巴西圣马蒂尼奥的南方空间天文台建造一个全尺寸的Muon探测器来缩小覆盖范围的差距，并在其网站(www.bartol.udel.edu/~nuonm/)上增加功能，提供宇宙线密度梯度、角各向异性和双向流动的实时图形显示。

The activities of this proposal are aimed at exploiting the "Forbush decrease", a region of suppressed cosmic ray density located downstream of coronal mass ejection (CME) shock fronts, for the purpose of predicting with a lead time of some 4-8 hours the arrival of a CME at Earth. Muon detectors and neutron monitors will be utilized to detect the loss-cone anisotropy of energetic particles which escape from the "Forbush decrease" plasma. From this information, it is possible to infer useful constraints on the orientation and extent of solar ejecta. The principal efforts will be to close a coverage gap by constructing a full-size muon detector at the Southern Space Observatory, in Sao Martinho, Brazil, and to add features to their website (www.bartol.udel.edu/~neutronm/) giving real-time graphical displays of cosmic ray density gradients, angular anisotropies, and bi-directional flows.